Reading CLAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLAR free→Reading CLAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CLAR free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening. If CLAR cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.12 CLAR trades at 24× p/e — 1.6× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $3.06 fair value is medium-confidence here. Analysts: $2.90–$6.00. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.02 → $-0.07 (-319.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$185.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$474.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,570.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into Clarus Corp.'s financial health and future outlook.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows better profits or revenue growth.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses or falling revenue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CLAR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Clarus Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release and an investor presentation regarding the Company’s results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Presentation”) are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The Press Release and the Presentation…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$2.90 – $6.00 (median $5.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CLAR Clarus Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | full | elevated |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Clarus aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA between $3 million and $5 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was revised from $9M-$11M in 2025-Q4 to $3M-$5M in 2026-Q1, indicating a downward adjustment. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the initial target.
“The company expects adjusted EBITDA to range between approximately $3 million and $5 million for 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA to range between approximately $9 million and $11 million for 2026.”
Clarus aims to maintain flat free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The guidance for free cash flow was revised from $3M-$4M in 2025-Q4 to flat in 2026-Q1. The trajectory indicates a challenge in achieving positive cash flow, with limited progress towards the initial target.
“Free cash flow is now expected to be flat for the full year 2026.”
“Free cash flow is expected to range between $3 and $4 million for the full year 2026.”
Clarus revised its fiscal year 2026 sales outlook to range between $245 million and $255 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Sales guidance was revised from $255M-$265M in 2025-Q4 to $245M-$255M in 2026-Q1, indicating a downward adjustment. The trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving higher sales targets.
Why it matters: If revenue goes up, it may show that the consumer discretionary sector is getting better.
Confirms:Revenue growth for Clarus Corp. turns positive for the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains negative for the next quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 5, 2026, Clarus Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference is a presentation regarding the Company’s financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 20…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 6, 2025, Clarus Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference is a presentation regarding the Company’s financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 (the “Presen…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 31, 2025, Clarus Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference is a presentation regarding the Company’s financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025 (the “Presentation”). T…
“The company now expects sales to range between $245 million and $255 million for 2026.”
“The company expects fiscal year 2026 sales to range between $255 million and $265 million.”