Reading BWIN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
As of June 16, 2026, BWIN's recent financial performance is weak, and its earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with BWIN trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18 BWIN trades at 11× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $20–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.43x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.47 (+0.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 81.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$243.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$567.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,295.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EPS means Baldwin is cutting costs. This could help investor trust.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS is flat or lower than last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BWIN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
interim Chief Accounting Officer — Johnathan Daniel: Johnathan Daniel was appointed as interim Chief Accounting Officer due to Corbyn Lichon's maternity leave.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$20.00 – $40.00 (median $35.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Insurance Brokers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BWIN Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | fair | elevated |
MRSH Marsh McLennan | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
AON Aon plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
WTW Willis Towers Watson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | fair | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve double-digit organic growth by the end of 2026.
Management set a target for total revenue growth of 8% to reach $1.5 billion in 2025.
Management aims to grow adjusted diluted EPS by 11% year-over-year.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% signals a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could impact Baldwin's growth outlook.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect financial plans. Stability is important for investor trust.
Confirms one read:The new CFO gave positive comments about financial plans and performance.
Confirms the other:There is negative feedback or doubt about the CFO's plans.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
issued by the Company to such owners at the Closing (as adjusted as provided therein), the Company agreed to take all actions reasonably necessary to cause (i) one nominee designated by the Seller Group (the “Seller Director”) to be appointed as a Class III director on the Company’s board of directors (the “Board”) and (ii) one representative designated by the Seller Group to be appointed as an observer on the Board (the “Board Observer”), in each case on the terms and subject to the conditio…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Voting Agreement On the Closing Date, pursuant to the Transaction Agreement, the Company entered into a voting agreement (the “Voting Agreement”) with certain direct owners of the Seller (the “Seller Group”). Pursuant to the Voting Agreement, until the date that is the earlier of (a) the sixth anniversary of the Closing Date and (b) such time as certain owners of the Seller and their respective permitted transferees no longer own (after giving effec…