Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The) (BWIN)

NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-10-23

$31.96+0.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.48 → 2.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	490.86M
EPS	—	0.457
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.01B
EPS	—	2.013
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.2B
EPS	—	2.479

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted diluted EPS grows by 11% year-over-year	A supporting condition in Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 11% YoY EPS growth.	Recovered	EPS growth falls below 11% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS increased 14% year-over-year to $0.48 in 2026-Q2 and grew 5% year-over-year to $1.11 for the first half of 2026. Despite a slight decrease in Q1, the overall trajectory shows delivering progress on EPS growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Double-digit organic growth by end of 2026	Management targets double-digit organic growth by end of 2026.	Intact	organic growth falls below 10% by end of 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenue grew 30% from $378.8M in 2025-Q2 to $492.9M in 2026-Q2, with organic revenue growth of 2% in both 2026-Q1 and Q2. Management's statements and revenue growth indicate delivering progress on accelerating organic growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Total revenue reaches at least $1.5 billion in 2025	A primary condition in Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.5B total revenue.	Intact	total revenue falls below $1.5B in FY25	Revenue: $492.939M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.5B total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026492,939,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 93395467-e17d-4152-8450-6f61087e5356. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2025-FY. Management targeted $1.5 billion revenue for 2025 with 8% growth. Actual 2025 revenue was approximately $1.5 billion, consistent with the target, indicating delivery on this revenue milestone. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.48

$2.50 → $2.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.20B

$2.20B → $2.20B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-07-25	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-07-26	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-07-27	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-07-28	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-07-29	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-07-30	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-07-31	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-08-01	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-08-02	$2.50	$2,200,446,670	10 / 7
2026-08-03	$2.50	$2,204,045,960	10 / 8
2026-08-04	$2.50	$2,204,045,960	10 / 8
2026-08-05	$2.49	$2,205,622,610	10 / 8
2026-08-06	$2.49	$2,205,622,610	10 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.51	$2,199,728,628	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.49	$2,205,685,110	10 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.49	$2,205,685,110	10 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.49	$2,205,685,110	10 / 8
2026-08-11	$2.49	$2,205,685,110	10 / 8
2026-08-12	$2.49	$2,207,607,610	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$2.51	$2,199,728,628	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$2.51	$2,199,728,628	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.51	$2,199,728,628	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.51	$2,199,728,628	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.51	$2,199,728,628	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.51	$2,199,728,628	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.51	$2,199,728,628	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.49	$2,203,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.49	$2,203,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.49	$2,203,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.49	$2,203,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.49	$2,203,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.49	$2,203,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$2.48	$2,211,164,158	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$2.48	$2,202,752,181	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$2.48	$2,202,752,181	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$2.48	$2,202,752,181	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$2.48	$2,202,752,181	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.48	$2,202,752,181	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$2.48	$2,202,752,181	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$2.48	$2,202,752,181	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$2.48	$2,202,752,181	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-09-25	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-09-28	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-09-29	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-09-30	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-01	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-02	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-03	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-04	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-05	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-06	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-07	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-08	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-09	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-10	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$2.48	$2,202,697,895	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$2.48	$2,202,704,752	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	4	0
2026-06-01	7	4	0
2026-07-01	7	3	0
2026-08-01	7	3	0
2026-09-01	7	3	1
2026-10-01	4	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades3 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 2 · prior Aug 3

$37.00 → $32.50-12.2%

$0$20.35$40.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted diluted EPS grows by 11% year-over-yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Double-digit organic growth by end of 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue reaches at least $1.5 billion in 2025Revenue: $492.939M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a financial-sector business with a mixed execution story, rather than a proven durable compounder based on the evidence available. Management is making progress on revenue and adjusted earnings goals, but the business remains loss-making overall and recent performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The)

The valuation is above peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative, meaning expectations appear somewhat ahead of the evidence. The valuation score has fallen recently, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified with low fragility; confidence in the valuation model is also low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings remain uneven: the latest report was in line, but recent surprises have been erratic and performance is weak relative to the industry. Over the multi-year view, revenue and adjusted diluted EPS progress support management’s stated priorities, though organic growth has stayed at 2% in each of the last two reported quarters. A guidance cut, litigation, and sector headwinds remain risks.

What Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The) hinges on

The near-term setup depends in part on whether management avoids a guidance cut and sustains progress on organic growth and adjusted EPS. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results from bellwethers could support momentum, while rate cuts may weigh on financial stocks. The recent material agreement and litigation filing add company-specific uncertainty.