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Track AJG free→Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$215.96+0.10%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AJG trades above typical levels, indicating an expensive valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Market cap
- $56.19B
- Employees
- 72,000
- IPO date
- 1995-03-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $215.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$179.01consensus
Range $149.17 – $229.98
vs price: +21% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$288.37consensus
Range $223.49 – $498.29
vs price: -25% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $216 the market pays 19× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 26× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $176 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $211–$265. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.8x
peer 14.4x · own history 26.5x
Premium
1.3x peer
0.7x its own history
Growth the price needs
23%
our forecast 33%
Our fair value
$175.87
range $148.63 – $218.38
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
96th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
52nd pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish19 analysts, 71% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.86 → $2.86 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 16 cut, 19 covering analysts.
Rating actions
2 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.6% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$127.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$277.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,063.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for changes in global insurance renewal premiums
Why it matters: Changes in premiums affect revenue and profits. A shift may show market conditions impacting earnings.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Renewal premiums show an increase across major lines by Q3 2026.
Confirms the other:Renewal premiums show a decline across major lines by Q3 2026.
Sector context
as of 2026-06-16
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-116d agoInvesting.com
Advances: Organic and M&A revenue growth strategy
Upgrade reflects confidence in organic growth strategy.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and WTW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting AJG and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AJG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AJG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-01-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on AJG and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and WTW start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping AJG and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (the Company) issued a press release setting forth the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the Earnings Release). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.