Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$254.88+1.91%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

14.93 → 14.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful integration of acquisitions adding $3.5B revenue	A primary condition in Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration of acquisitions contributing $3.5B annual revenue.	Intact	Integration delays or revenue contribution falls significantly below $3.5B by 2025-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain adjusted EBITDAC margin near 31%	Profit margins remain strong near 31%.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDAC margin falls below 28% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Adjusted EBITDAC margin was 33.3% in 2026-Q2, down slightly from 36.1% in 2025-Q2, reflecting some margin pressure. Margins remain strong overall, with management emphasizing operational efficiency and cost control. The trajectory shows persistent focus with some margin compression, consistent with management's statements. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 15% annually	A primary condition in Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=14.6% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below ~7% next year	Revenue growth: 24.29% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14.6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202624.285892 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b4de406d-181f-453d-9ae4-258b961c035d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Revenue grew from approximately $3.18B in 2025-Q2 to $3.95B in 2026-Q2, a 24% increase. Management consistently emphasized the two-pronged growth strategy of organic and M&A revenue growth, with 20 consecutive quarters of double-digit top line growth through 2025-Q4. The trajectory is delivering as revenue growth remains strong and consistent with management's stated strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$14.84

$14.87 → $14.84 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$17.97B

$18.31B → $17.97B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$14.87	$18,310,932,460	22 / 11
2026-07-25	$14.87	$18,310,932,460	22 / 11
2026-07-26	$14.87	$18,310,932,460	22 / 11
2026-07-27	$14.90	$18,243,909,126	13 / 9
2026-07-28	$14.87	$18,310,932,460	22 / 11
2026-07-29	$14.87	$18,234,658,510	22 / 8
2026-07-30	$14.87	$18,234,658,510	22 / 8
2026-07-31	$14.87	$18,234,658,510	22 / 8
2026-08-01	$14.93	$18,266,523,213	13 / 7
2026-08-02	$14.87	$18,291,778,020	22 / 6
2026-08-03	$14.87	$18,291,778,020	22 / 6
2026-08-04	$14.87	$18,291,778,020	22 / 6
2026-08-05	$14.87	$18,291,778,020	22 / 6
2026-08-06	$14.87	$18,291,778,020	22 / 6
2026-08-07	$14.91	$18,236,329,138	13 / 6
2026-08-08	$14.87	$18,291,778,020	22 / 6
2026-08-09	$14.87	$18,291,778,020	22 / 6
2026-08-10	$14.87	$18,291,778,020	22 / 6
2026-08-11	$14.89	$18,268,552,700	22 / 6
2026-08-12	$14.89	$18,268,552,700	22 / 6
2026-08-13	$14.89	$18,268,552,700	22 / 6
2026-08-14	$14.91	$18,236,329,138	13 / 6
2026-08-15	$14.91	$18,236,329,138	13 / 6
2026-08-16	$14.91	$18,236,329,138	13 / 6
2026-08-17	$14.91	$18,236,329,138	13 / 6
2026-08-18	$14.91	$18,236,329,138	13 / 6
2026-08-19	$14.91	$18,236,329,138	13 / 6
2026-08-20	$14.92	$18,154,281,997	13 / 6
2026-08-21	$14.92	$18,154,281,997	13 / 6
2026-08-22	$14.92	$18,154,281,997	13 / 6
2026-08-23	$14.92	$18,154,281,997	13 / 6
2026-08-24	$14.92	$18,154,281,997	13 / 6
2026-08-25	$14.92	$18,154,281,997	13 / 6
2026-08-26	$14.92	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-08-27	$14.92	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-08-28	$14.92	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-08-29	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-08-30	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-08-31	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-01	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-02	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-03	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-04	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-05	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-06	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-07	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-08	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-09	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-10	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-11	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-12	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-13	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-14	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-15	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-16	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-17	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-18	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-19	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-20	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-21	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-22	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-23	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-24	$14.93	$18,148,575,747	13 / 6
2026-09-25	$14.88	$18,097,253,308	13 / 7
2026-09-26	$14.88	$18,095,415,412	13 / 7
2026-09-27	$14.88	$18,095,415,412	13 / 7
2026-09-28	$14.88	$18,095,415,412	13 / 7
2026-09-29	$14.88	$18,095,415,412	13 / 7
2026-09-30	$14.88	$18,095,415,412	13 / 7
2026-10-01	$14.88	$18,094,477,912	13 / 7
2026-10-02	$14.89	$18,096,754,744	13 / 7
2026-10-03	$14.89	$18,096,754,744	13 / 7
2026-10-04	$14.89	$18,096,754,744	13 / 7
2026-10-05	$14.89	$18,096,754,744	13 / 7
2026-10-06	$14.89	$18,096,754,744	13 / 7
2026-10-07	$14.89	$18,086,871,181	13 / 7
2026-10-08	$14.84	$17,972,351,524	13 / 7
2026-10-09	$14.84	$17,965,880,935	14 / 8
2026-10-10	$14.84	$17,965,880,935	14 / 8
2026-10-11	$14.84	$17,965,880,935	14 / 8
2026-10-12	$14.84	$17,965,880,935	14 / 8
2026-10-13	$14.84	$17,966,366,876	14 / 8
2026-10-14	$14.84	$17,966,366,876	14 / 8
2026-10-15	$14.84	$17,966,365,200	14 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	15	8
2026-06-01	17	7
2026-07-01	17	7
2026-08-01	16	6
2026-09-01	16	6
2026-10-01	16	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Sep 24

$291.00 → $284.00-2.4%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Sep 16

$292.00 → $271.00-7.2%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 7 · prior Jul 9

$300.00 → $280.00-6.7%

Morgan StanleyOct 6 · prior Sep 25

$285.00 → $260.00-8.8%

$0$165.00$330.00

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful integration of acquisitions adding $3.5B revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain adjusted EBITDAC margin near 31%Published status: Broken
Sustain revenue growth near 15% annuallyRevenue growth: 24.29%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth through both organic means and acquisitions. The current state of the thesis is cautious, given recent financial performance has been weak relative to peers.

What's priced into Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

The market seems to price in a durable premium for AJG, indicating expectations of consistent performance. However, the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting that some investors may be cautious about future growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has a robust strategy for growth, with recent revenue increases supporting their goals. However, there is some margin pressure, and the recent financial performance has been below industry standards, which could impact future results.

What Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. hinges on

The thesis hinges on whether AJG can maintain its revenue growth strategy and successfully integrate the AssuredPartners acquisition. Additionally, external factors like interest rate changes and performance of sector peers will play a significant role in shaping future outcomes.