Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-30
$261.39+4.23%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put ERIE beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Financials is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating income grows at least 10% year over year: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 2% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 35%, softest on free-cash-flow yield.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 74% growth a year, above the roughly 6% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 2% a day.
View RiskERIE’s case rests on steady insurance earnings, despite mixed quality and muted revenue growth. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year in Q2 FY2026; Q3 EPS beat estimates. ERIE’s valuation lacks a clean multiple; expectations look full versus our growth view. The market prices more growth than we forecast, raising premium-compression risk. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 21%. Operating-income comparison needs review, so the pillar pressure is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% below where it trades. The thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. ERIE is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 1 analyst currently covering ERIE (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare ERIE with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERIE Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Insurance Brokers — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ERIE next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.