Reading AON? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AON free→
Aon plc (AON)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$331.50+0.60%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, with AON trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Market cap
- $71.61B
- Employees
- 60,000
- IPO date
- 1995-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-24
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $331.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$256.28consensus
Range $182.65 – $278.90
vs price: +29% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$300.82consensus
Range $260.76 – $337.38
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $329 AON trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 14× p/e peer median. Our $248 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $355–$394. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.3x
peer 14.4x · own history 22.8x
Premium
1.2x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
33%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$247.51
range $187.44 – $275.44
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 32% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
94th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.96x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
25th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral20 analysts, 64% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.82 → $3.82 (-0.2% / 30d). 6 raised, 8 cut, 20 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.3% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$106.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$226.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,750.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for news on the Aon and Willis Towers Watson merger approval.
Why it matters: Regulatory approval is key to completing the merger. Delays could hurt growth plans.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:A news release confirming approval from the U.S. Department of Justice.
Confirms the other:There may be more delays or problems getting approval.
Material eventSource dated 2021-06-03
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1715h agomint
Threatens: Expand adjusted operating margin by 70-80 basis points
Inflation and supply chain issues may pressure margins.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AJG, and WTW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting AON and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AON raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-01), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AON cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-01), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on AON and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AJG, and WTW start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping AON and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-011mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026 , Aon plc issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.