Aon plc (AON)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - BrokersSnapshot 2026-10-15

$292.55+2.00%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aon plc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

20.64 → 20.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $7.5 billion share buyback program	It recently approved a $7.5 billion share buyback, showing confidence in its cash generation.	Intact	Buyback program is cancelled or materially reduced	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS near $6.48	A primary condition in Aon plc's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $6.48.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.50 next year	Diluted EPS: $2.58 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $6.48. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20262.58 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7082cd8f-845c-4be7-b7b5-e65de26bf469. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand adjusted operating margin by 70-80 basis points	A primary condition in Aon plc's published investment case. The stated target is operating margin between 0.7% and 0.8%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 0.6% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain mid-single-digit organic revenue growth	A primary condition in Aon plc's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 4% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$20.30

$21.38 → $20.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$21.53B

$19.12B → $21.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$21.38	$19,116,617,490	22 / 16
2026-07-25	$21.38	$19,116,617,490	22 / 16
2026-07-26	$21.38	$19,116,617,490	22 / 16
2026-07-27	$21.36	$19,172,271,299	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$21.38	$19,116,617,490	22 / 16
2026-07-29	$21.38	$19,116,617,490	22 / 16
2026-07-30	$21.38	$19,116,617,490	22 / 16
2026-07-31	$21.35	$19,128,756,122	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$21.35	$19,053,688,550	22 / 16
2026-08-02	$21.35	$19,053,688,550	22 / 16
2026-08-03	$21.35	$19,032,442,090	22 / 16
2026-08-04	$21.35	$19,032,442,090	22 / 16
2026-08-05	$21.36	$19,029,575,730	22 / 17
2026-08-06	$21.36	$19,029,575,730	22 / 17
2026-08-07	$21.33	$19,055,453,985	14 / 14
2026-08-08	$21.34	$19,017,581,610	22 / 17
2026-08-09	$21.34	$19,017,581,610	22 / 17
2026-08-10	$21.34	$19,017,581,610	22 / 17
2026-08-11	$21.34	$19,017,581,610	22 / 17
2026-08-12	$21.34	$19,017,581,610	22 / 17
2026-08-13	$21.34	$19,017,581,610	22 / 17
2026-08-14	$21.33	$19,055,453,985	14 / 14
2026-08-15	$21.33	$19,055,453,985	14 / 14
2026-08-16	$21.33	$19,055,453,985	14 / 14
2026-08-17	$21.33	$19,055,453,985	14 / 14
2026-08-18	$21.33	$19,055,453,985	14 / 14
2026-08-19	$21.33	$19,055,453,985	14 / 14
2026-08-20	$21.33	$19,055,453,985	14 / 14
2026-08-21	$21.34	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-22	$21.34	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-23	$21.34	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-24	$21.34	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-25	$21.34	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-26	$21.34	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-27	$21.34	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-28	$21.34	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-29	$21.35	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-30	$21.35	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-08-31	$21.35	$19,046,482,359	14 / 14
2026-09-01	$20.82	$20,306,536,809	14 / 14
2026-09-02	$20.77	$20,306,183,868	13 / 12
2026-09-03	$20.73	$20,379,470,032	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$20.68	$20,545,434,738	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$20.68	$20,545,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-06	$20.68	$20,545,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-07	$20.68	$20,545,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-08	$20.68	$20,545,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-09	$20.65	$20,718,611,209	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$20.65	$20,718,611,209	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$20.65	$20,718,611,209	9 / 8
2026-09-12	$20.64	$20,709,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-13	$20.64	$20,709,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-14	$20.64	$20,709,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-15	$20.64	$20,709,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-16	$20.64	$20,709,434,738	9 / 8
2026-09-17	$20.61	$20,709,420,615	9 / 8
2026-09-18	$20.61	$20,709,420,615	9 / 8
2026-09-19	$20.61	$20,709,420,615	9 / 8
2026-09-20	$20.60	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-21	$20.60	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-22	$20.60	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-23	$20.56	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-24	$20.56	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-25	$20.56	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-26	$20.56	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-27	$20.56	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-28	$20.56	$20,709,420,615	10 / 8
2026-09-29	$20.56	$20,701,950,026	10 / 8
2026-09-30	$20.56	$20,701,950,026	10 / 8
2026-10-01	$20.51	$20,866,905,326	10 / 9
2026-10-02	$20.41	$21,003,425,207	11 / 10
2026-10-03	$20.41	$21,003,425,207	11 / 10
2026-10-04	$20.41	$21,003,425,207	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$20.41	$21,003,425,207	11 / 9
2026-10-06	$20.42	$21,053,916,748	11 / 9
2026-10-07	$20.35	$21,229,149,962	11 / 11
2026-10-08	$20.32	$21,385,738,197	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$20.32	$21,531,444,080	12 / 12
2026-10-10	$20.32	$21,531,444,080	12 / 12
2026-10-11	$20.32	$21,531,444,080	12 / 13
2026-10-12	$20.32	$21,531,444,080	12 / 13
2026-10-13	$20.30	$21,534,044,080	12 / 13
2026-10-14	$20.30	$21,534,044,080	12 / 12
2026-10-15	$20.30	$21,534,020,021	12 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	14	6	2
2026-06-01	14	6	2
2026-07-01	14	7	2
2026-08-01	13	7	2
2026-09-01	14	7	3
2026-10-01	13	5	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades8 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 8 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 12 · prior Sep 1

$383.00 → $323.00-15.7%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior Sep 16

$366.00 → $324.00-11.5%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 7 · prior Sep 1

$433.00 → $400.00-7.6%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 7

$382.00 → $317.00-17.0%

Morgan StanleyOct 6 · prior Aug 19

$410.00 → $350.00-14.6%

$0$238.15$476.30

0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $7.5 billion share buyback programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve EPS near $6.48Diluted EPS: $2.58 per share
Expand adjusted operating margin by 70-80 basis pointsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain mid-single-digit organic revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-29.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aon plc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is a durable compounder with a focus on consistent organic revenue growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is intact, despite some recent volatility in management confidence and sector headwinds.

What's priced into Aon plc

The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality, but it remains justified given the company's premium valuation compared to peers. The expectations gap indicates that the market anticipates some challenges ahead.

What the fundamentals likely do

AON's fundamentals are likely to continue showing mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and margin expansion, as management has consistently delivered on these priorities. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent events and a history of misses that could impact future performance.

What Aon plc hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on growth targets. Additionally, the performance of sector peers and potential changes in interest rates will be crucial for AON's trajectory.