Reading RYAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RYAN free→Reading RYAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RYAN free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and risk is elevated, while management's recent track record has been neutral. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits, and the company's capital stance is capital-friendly. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from RYAN and the performance of sector bellwethers like FNF, FAF, and ACT. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
We can't anchor a clean multiple for RYAN right now, so treat our $26 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $31–$65. Not investment advice.
(median $40.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 38% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 5.70x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.60 (+0.2% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 2 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.8% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$194.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,737.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show how revenue is growing, profits are doing, and what management thinks about challenges.
Confirms one read:The company reports total revenue growth over 10% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:The company reports total revenue growth below 5% compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RYAN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 26, 2026, Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has approved an increase to the Company's share repurchase program that authorizes the Company to repurchase up to an additional $300 million of its outstanding Class A common stock, bringing the total share repurchase program to $600 million. As of May 22, 2026, after accounting for the recent share repurchases during the second quarter of 202…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Insurance Brokers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RYAN Ryan Specialty | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MRSH Marsh McLennan | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
AON Aon plc | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | full | moderate |
WTW Willis Towers Watson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Expand the share repurchase program by an additional $300 million, totaling $600 million.
Guide to a decrease in Adjusted EBITDAC Margin by 100-150 basis points for the fiscal year 2026.
Continue to pay a regular quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights into revenue growth and margin trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows Adjusted EBITDAC Margin above the guided range of -100 to -150 bps.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows Adjusted EBITDAC Margin below the guided range of -150 bps.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong confidence from management. It also shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Confirms:The company says it has finished $600 million in share buybacks.
Disproves:The company fails to repurchase shares or suspends the program.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Confirms:The company announces a dividend increase to more than $0.13 per share.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend or maintains it at $0.13 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below the median could signal challenges for Ryan Specialty.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains stable or increases.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Confirms:The company pays the declared quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share.
Disproves:The company stops or cuts the dividend payment.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this current report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement . On April 30, 2026, Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) and the Ryan Stock Option Trust (the “Trust”), a trust of which Patrick G. Ryan, the Company’s Executive Chairman, and Shirley W. Ryan, serve as trustees, agreed to enter into an option settlement agreement (the “Option Settlement Agreement”) on May 5, 2026. Pursuant to the Terms of the Option Settlement Agreement, the Trust will have the obligation to sell to the Company up to an agg…
Other Events. On April 30, 2026, the Company's board of directors (the "Board") declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.13 per share on the outstanding Class A common stock. The regular quarterly dividend will be payable on May 26, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on May 12, 2026.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be filed for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. The information in this current report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.