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Track NP free→Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc (NP)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$33.38+0.48%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that NP's steady management and growth trajectory can drive value. Revenue growth is expected to be strong, but there is no recent earnings release. The market is pricing in more growth than we forecast. It trades at a premium compared to peers, which looks full. If NP cuts guidance, it could negatively impact the stock. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% below where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Market cap
- $4.60B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-09-03
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.38. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$20.82
Range $5.36 – $16.49
vs price: +60% above
Method agreement : high · 8 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$32.32consensus
Range $7.46 – $20.91
vs price: +3% above
Method agreement : low · 4 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$42.75consensus
Range $9.87 – $27.65
vs price: -22% below
Method agreement : low · 4 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
medium confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for NP right now, so treat our $21 fair value as low-confidence (our number sits below the analyst range). Analysts target $26–$35. Note: our $21 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($26–$35). Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
68%
our forecast 51%
Our fair value
$20.82
range $5.31 – $16.49
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The price sits about 68% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 51% growth — ahead of our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
81.4xP/E · peer median
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2527).
95th pctl · Financials
Not investment advice. As of 2026-07-06.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish11 analysts, 67% Buyfor period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.15 (+0.4% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 11 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$226.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$530.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,378.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 17d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance meeting or exceeding $186M
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target shows the company is on track for growth. It confirms management's revenue goals for 2026.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $186 million.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $186 million.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for consumer spending trends in retail sales data
- Watch for FOMC decisions that affect interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting NP and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If NP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If NP cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-22), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would weigh on NP and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping NP and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-222mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and an earnings presentation announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release and the earning presentation are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.