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Bentley Systems (BSY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$30.17-1.18%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and BSY trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could provide a momentum boost. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $9.32B
- Employees
- 5,800
- IPO date
- 2002-04-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $30.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$23.91consensus
Range $19.70 – $26.70
vs price: +26% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$35.61consensus
Range $31.79 – $41.81
vs price: -15% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $31 BSY trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
24.6x
peer 21.2x · own history 44.2x
Premium
1.2x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
25%
our forecast 12%
Our fair value
$24.37
range $21.27 – $26.92
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 25% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
86th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
57th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral15 analysts, 75% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.32 → $0.32 (-0.9% / 30d). 4 raised, 6 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$391.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,837.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Short-term · Daily
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 18d
Watch for Q2 2026 dividend declaration
Why it matters: The dividend amount shows that management trusts the cash flow and financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The Board declares a dividend of $0.07 per share for Q2 2026.
Disproves:The Board decides to cut or suspend the dividend.
Material event
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-124d agoThe Times of India
Partnership enhances brand and potential revenue growth.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BSY and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting BSY and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BSY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BSY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping BSY and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2622d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 22, 2026, Bentley Systems, Incorporated announced that its Board of Directors declared a $0.07 per share dividend for the second quarter of 2026. The cash dividend will be payable on June 11, 2026 to all stockholders of record of Class A and Class B Common Stock as of the close of business on June 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.