Reading BRSP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 23% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If BRSP cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $5.60 BRSP trades at 9× p/e, below its 10× p/e peer median. Our $4.91 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 14% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.32x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.15 (-7.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$226.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,213.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could improve BrightSpire's performance. This would help the overall sector outlook.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the real estate sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BRSP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Mazzei Employment Agreement On February 16, 2024, the Company entered into a second amended and restated employment agreement with Michael Mazzei, Chief Executive Officer (the “Second Amended and Restated Employment Agreement”), pursuant to which Mr. Mazzei’s term of employment expires on March 31, 2027. Thereunder, Mr. Mazzei receives an annual ba…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Mortgage REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BRSP BrightSpire Capital, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
STWD Starwood Property Trust | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 28 of 100 | full | moderate |
RITM Rithm Capital | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding the portfolio and increasing earnings by originating new loans.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $83.16M in 2025-Q4 to $85.14M in 2026-Q1, indicating some progress in portfolio growth. However, the trajectory shows limited substantive delivery as the revenue increase is modest.
“Our focus remains on growing the portfolio and earnings through new loan originations.”
“Our focus remains on growing the portfolio and earnings through new loan originations.”
Continue efforts to resolve remaining Real Estate Owned (REO) and watchlist loans.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. No specific financial metrics provided to assess progress on resolving REO and watchlist loans. The recurring focus suggests ongoing efforts, but the lack of detailed outcomes indicates limited substantive delivery so far.
“Continuing to resolve what remains of our REO and watchlist loans.”
Continue to maintain a stable dividend per share of $0.16.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share remained at $0.16 from 2025-Q1 to 2026-Q1, indicating consistent capital allocation. The stable dividend reflects management's commitment to maintaining shareholder returns despite fluctuating net income.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 13, 2026, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”), at which the Company’s stockholders approved a second amendment to the BrightSpire Capital, Inc. 2022 Equity Incentive Plan, as heretofore amended (the “2022 Equity Incentive Plan” and such second amendment, the “2022 Plan…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial position as of March 31, 2026 and its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. On April 28, 2026, the Company made available a Supplemental Financial Disclosure Presentation for the first…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Master Repurchase Agreement and Guarantee - JPMorgan Chase Bank On March 12, 2026, BrightSpire Credit 9, LLC (“Seller”), an indirect subsidiary of BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a Master Repurchase Agreement (the “Repurchase Agreement”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (“JPM”). The Repurchase Agreement provides up to $250.0 million to finance first mortgage loans, senior loan participations and related mezzanin…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
“Continuing to resolve what remains of our REO and watchlist loans.”
“Dividend per share remained at $0.16.”
“Dividend per share remained at $0.16.”
“Dividend per share remained at $0.16.”
“Dividend per share remained at $0.16.”