BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-29
$3.42-3.12%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put BRSP beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Mortgage REITs is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 3% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 1% on a typical day and fell roughly 42% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskBRSP’s case rests on resolving watchlist loans and expanding earnings through new loan originations. Slower loan-book growth challenges that growth engine, despite a $100 million CLO ramp. Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 20% year over year, though no Q3 revenue comparison is available. The latest recorded miss was 24%, and our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 67%. BRSP trades at 8× P/E versus an 8.5× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite the modest peer valuation gap. Management is behind on a stated commitment, risking confidence in execution. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. BRSP is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 8 analysts currently covering BRSP (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare BRSP with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRSP Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Mortgage REITs — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put BRSP next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Grow portfolio and earnings through new loan originations
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Slower loan-book growth challenges the origination objective, though the $100 million CLO ramp supports deployment.
Advances: Resolve remaining REO and watchlist loans
Sale helps resolve remaining REO and watchlist loans.
