Reading BLZE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLZE free→Reading BLZE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLZE free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is high. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $8.11 BLZE trades at 3× p/s, below its 5× p/s peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $4.50–$11. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.98x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.02 (+882.4% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$219.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$507.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,921.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The valuation changed. It rose to inexpensive from fair. The sector backdrop is a tailwind. Risk remains high. Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is loss-making. Management is stable.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Backblaze can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of growth or continued losses.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show profits again.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows bigger losses. There is no growth in revenue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BLZE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 . A copy of the press release and supplemental earnings presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. This information is intended to be furnished under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$4.50 – $11.00 (median $8.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BLZE Backblaze, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has raised the revenue guidance for full-year 2026 to between $161.5 million and $163.5 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 was raised from $156.5M-$158.5M to $161.5M-$163.5M. Revenue grew from $37.76M in 2025-Q4 to $38.67M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the higher target.
“For full-year 2026, we have raised our outlook: Revenue between $161.5 million to $163.5 million.”
“For full-year 2026, we expect: Revenue between $156.5 million to $158.5 million.”
Management has increased the adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 to a range of 23% to 25%.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was raised to 23%-25% for 2026. Despite the improved margin outlook, operating income remains negative, with a loss of $5.35M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in achieving profitability.
“Adjusted EBITDA margin range of 23% to 25%, raised from 19% to 21%.”
Management aims to maintain positive cash flow from operations, as evidenced by the $3.36 million in 2026-Q1.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations was $3.36M in 2026-Q1, down from $9.31M in 2025-Q4 and $5.74M in 2025-Q3. Despite positive cash flow, the declining trend suggests limited progress in sustaining operational cash generation.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Backblaze. It may affect investor confidence and market positioning.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above median levels.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 23, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 . A copy of the press release and supplemental earnings presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. This information is intended to be furnished under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025 , the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025 . A copy of the press release and supplemental earnings presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. This information is intended to be furnished under
Other Events. In November 2025, the Company initiated certain transformation and restructuring actions designed primarily to improve efficiency and enhance the performance of its sales and marketing functions, and other corporate actions (the “2025 Restructuring Plan”). As part of the 2025 Restructuring Plan, the Company expects to incur total charges of approximately $4.4 million to $6.0 million, primarily in the fourth quarter of 2025. These charges include an estimated impairment of approx…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2025 , the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 . A copy of the press release and supplemental earnings presentation is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. This information is intended to be furnished under
“Cash from operations was $3.36 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Cash from operations was $9.31 million in 2025-Q4.”
“Cash from operations was $5.74 million in 2025-Q3.”