Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.34-3.14%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Backblaze, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$44.4M–$44.8M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	46.99M
EPS	—	0.031
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$172M–$174M	172.96M
EPS	—	0.2
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	217.74M
EPS	—	0.217

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Positive cash flow from operations maintained in 2026	The company had positive cash flow of $3.36 million in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Cash flow from operations turns negative in FY26	Cash from operations: $10.427M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202610,427,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash flow from operations increased from $8.5 million in first half 2025 to $13.8 million in first half 2026. Adjusted free cash flow improved from negative $6.0 million to positive $1.4 million in the same periods. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward positive cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating margin stays at or above 23% in 2026	Profit margin is expected near 24%.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 23% in FY26	Operating margin: -9.77% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=23 PERCENT. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Aug 3, 2026-9.772201 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ffb9c158-7362-4033-b607-e179cbfd5a0b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 18% in 2025-Q2 to 30% in 2026-Q2, demonstrating operational leverage. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance twice, most recently to 27%-29%. The trajectory shows delivering improved profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $161.5 million in 2026	A primary condition in Backblaze, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=161.5 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $161.5 million in FY26	Revenue: $42.713M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=161.5 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202642,713,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ffb9c158-7362-4033-b607-e179cbfd5a0b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $37.7 million in 2025-Q4 to $42.7 million in 2026-Q2, an 18% increase year-over-year in Q2. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance twice, most recently to $172.0 million to $174.0 million, up from $161.5 million to $163.5 million. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth and upward guidance revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.16 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.22B

$0.19B → $0.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$200,097,143	3 / 5
2026-08-02	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$0.16	$189,039,000	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$0.20	$194,623,670	5 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-08	$0.28	$217,199,290	5 / 7
2026-08-09	$0.28	$217,199,290	5 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.28	$217,199,290	5 / 7
2026-08-11	$0.28	$217,199,290	5 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.28	$217,199,290	5 / 7
2026-08-13	$0.28	$217,199,290	5 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$217,199,286	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$217,743,286	3 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	1	1
2026-06-01	7	1	1
2026-07-01	7	1	0
2026-08-01	6	1	0
2026-09-01	6	1	0
2026-10-01	6	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Positive cash flow from operations maintained in 2026Cash from operations: $10.427M
Operating margin stays at or above 23% in 2026Operating margin: -9.77%
Revenue reaches at least $161.5 million in 2026Revenue: $42.713M

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-69.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Backblaze, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business working toward stronger profitability, rather than an established, consistently profitable company. Its long-term thesis is improving, with management on track across its stated priorities, but recent performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into Backblaze, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to BLZE as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of -0.23 and low fragility in the priced-in assessment. The valuation measure rose from 46.3 to 57.3, while the snapshot labels the current pricing as justified. Confidence in these signals is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin have improved, and management has raised 2026 guidance twice. Cash from operations also increased, while adjusted free cash flow moved from negative to positive in the first half of 2026. Loss-making status, weak relative performance, and elevated risk remain important; the snapshot also flags a past deep miss and a quiet near-term watch for possible misses.

What Backblaze, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on BLZE sustaining revenue growth, delivering its raised guidance, and continuing to improve margins and cash generation. A guidance reversal could damage management credibility, while rate cuts or continued strong results from large technology peers could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.