Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09

$13.23-4.75%

Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Turnaround → Compounder

Intact: The reason to own it still holds.

The bull case

Backblaze raised revenue guidance to about $162 million for 2026. Profit margin is expected near 24%. The company had positive cash flow of $3.36 million in 2026-Q1. These show the business is improving and growing.

The bear case

Backblaze is still loss-making with weak cash flow trends. Revenue growth may slow below 16%. Profit margins could fall short of 23%. These risks could stall the turnaround.

What's priced in

The price is about 23% above our fair value near $13. Analysts expect 16% revenue growth. Our fair value is 7% below the Street median of $14.

What has to stay true

Positive cash flow from operations maintained in 2026Intact
Cash Flowsupporting>0 USD_MILLIONS · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Cash flow from operations turns negative in FY26
Operating margin stays at or above 23% in 2026Improving
Marginprimary>=23 PERCENT · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 23% in FY26
Revenue reaches at least $161.5 million in 2026Intact
Revenue Growthprimary>=161.5 USD_MILLIONS · FY26 (guidance)
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $161.5 million in FY26

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-09· Version 1· Status: Intact· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

BLZE is navigating a challenging landscape with mixed signals for the long-term thesis.

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making, but it has shown some positive operational trends and management is focused on improving revenue and profitability.

What's priced into Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE)

The market appears to have low expectations for BLZE, as indicated by a negative expectations gap. Valuation is aligned with peers, but there is a slight premium, suggesting that the market is cautious about the company's performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to increase revenue guidance and improve adjusted EBITDA margins. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose risks in the near term.

What Backblaze, Inc. (BLZE) hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain its revenue growth and improve profitability while navigating potential risks. Key factors include the Fed's interest rate decisions and performance from sector leaders like Microsoft and Oracle.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat strengthens the read on BLZE. However, the pricing of $175 million in convertible notes threatens its goal of achieving positive cash flow from operations.

as of 2026-09-09

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.