Reading BLND? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 144% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.77 BLND trades at 54× p/e — 2.6× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $0.73 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $2.00–$4.50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 144% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.23x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.03 → $0.02 (-30.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$335.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$686.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,842.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it could affect Blend's performance. The sector is currently in a growth phase, but signs of slowing could be negative.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is below average. This may mean a slowdown is coming.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is above average. This suggests that strength will continue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BLND yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Blend Labs, Inc. (the “Company” or “Blend”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$2.00 – $4.50 (median $3.50) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BLND Blend Labs, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Blend aims to achieve positive non-GAAP operating income in upcoming quarters.
Blend aims to increase revenue to between $32M and $34M in the second quarter of 2026.
Blend's board authorized a $50M share buyback program to optimize capital allocation.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 10, 2026, Blend Labs, Inc. (the “Company” or “Blend”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fourth fiscal quarter and full fiscal year ended ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Other Events On March 10, 2026, the Company's board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $50.0 million of the Company’s Class A common stock. The Company’s board of directors expects to assess any future repurchase programs based on the Company’s balance sheet, expected free cash flow, and alternative investment opportunities at the time. Any future authorization will be approved and executed consistent with the Company’s capital allocation strategy. Repurchases may be made from ti…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 6, 2025, Blend Labs, Inc. (the “Company” or “Blend”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On October 2, 2025, the compensation committee of the board of directors of Blend Labs, Inc. (the “Company” or “Blend”) approved entry into a transition and general release agreement (the “Transition Agreement”) with Amir Jafari, the Company’s previous Head of Finance and Administration, pursuant to which Mr. Jafari’s employment with the Company wil…