Blend Labs, Inc. (BLND)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.17+5.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Blend Labs, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$31.5M–$33.5M	—
Operating income	$3.5M–$4.5Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	31.01M
EPS	—	0.005
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	128.17M
EPS	—	0.075
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	139.84M
EPS	—	0.047

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Non-GAAP operating income >= $5.5M in Q2 2026	Blend aims for positive operating income with $6.5M in Q2 2026.	Broken	Non-GAAP operating income falls below $5.5M in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Non-GAAP operating income improved from $0.7M in 2025-Q1 to $4.1M in 2026-Q1 and further to $7.0M in 2026-Q2, exceeding guidance. Management is delivering on improving operational profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue between $32M and $34M in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Blend Labs, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 32 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	Revenue falls below $32M in Q2 2026	Revenue: $33.837M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 32 USD_MILLIONS. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 6, 202633,837,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 82b2b407-e1bc-43dd-9e2d-bc0b3c4cca46. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $26.8M in 2025-Q1 to $30.8M in 2026-Q1 and reached $33.8M in 2026-Q2, near the high end of guidance. Management is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Implement $50M share buyback program	The company started a $50M share buyback to boost value.	Intact	Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management repurchased 11.2 million shares for $18.6M in 2026-Q1 and 11.0 million shares for $18.2M in 2026-Q2 under the $50M authorization. The program is actively executed with substantial capital returned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$0.10 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.15B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-28	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$0.10	$146,692,830	5 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-08	$0.10	$145,765,330	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$0.10	$145,765,330	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$0.10	$145,765,330	5 / 6
2026-08-11	$0.07	$140,610,330	5 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$140,610,330	4 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$140,610,330	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	1
2026-10-01	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Non-GAAP operating income >= $5.5M in Q2 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue between $32M and $34M in Q2 2026Revenue: $33.837M
Implement $50M share buyback programDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-74.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Blend Labs, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a loss-making growth business working toward stronger operating profitability, not an established profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is on track in management’s stated priorities, but the overall signal has shifted to mixed and the thesis is in a watch state.

What's priced into Blend Labs, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes BLND as cheap versus peers, with the model showing a negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified and fragility is low, but the evidence does not specify what market assumptions explain that gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and non-GAAP operating income have improved, with second-quarter revenue near the high end of guidance and operating income above guidance. Management has also executed the share repurchase program, though that priority remains on watch; recent results were in line, while performance remains below the industry cohort and risk is high.

What Blend Labs, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the tendency for estimates to be revised down afterward. Over the multi-year view, continued progress toward positive non-GAAP operating income and revenue growth matters, while Fed rate cuts and strength in sector bellwethers could provide a supportive backdrop.