Reading BL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BL free→Reading BL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BL free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with BL performing above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 BL trades at 12× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $42 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $32–$50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 32% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 6.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.57 (-3.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 10 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$191.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$565.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,711.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance is key to understanding if BlackLine maintains its growth momentum. Meeting or exceeding this range shows strong demand.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported within the range of $186 million to $188 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue falls below $186 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$32.00 – $50.00 (median $37.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BL BlackLine Systems, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 24.4% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through platform strategy and AI capabilities.
Improve operating leverage through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Develop and integrate AI capabilities to enhance platform offerings and customer value.
Focus on accelerating revenue growth through platform strategy and AI capabilities.
Improve cash flow from operations to support business growth and investments.
Why it matters: This margin guidance shows how well BlackLine runs its operations. Meeting this range shows good cost control.
Confirms:Q2 2026 non-GAAP operating margin reported within the range of 21.5% to 22.5%.
Disproves:In Q2 2026, the non-GAAP operating margin drops below 21.5%.
Why it matters: This hub shows BlackLine wants to grow its AI skills. This could improve its products.
Confirms:An official announcement is coming about the AI Innovation Hub. It will share its first projects.
Disproves:No updates or delays in the establishment of the AI Innovation Hub.
Why it matters: New directors could change BlackLine's strategy and governance. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms one read:Three new directors are elected to the Board at the Annual Meeting.
Confirms the other:No new directors are elected. The current Board stays the same.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 9, 2026, BlackLine, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a cooperation letter agreement (the “Agreement”) with Engaged Capital, LLC and certain other parties (collectively, “Engaged Capital”). Among other things, the Agreement provides that: • The Company will increase the size of the Company’s board of directors (the “Board”) to 14 directors and appoint Megan Prichard as a Class II Director, with a term expiring at the Company’s 2027 annual m…
Other Events On March 13, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of BlackLine, Inc. (the “Company”) approved an increase to the Company’s stock buyback program (the “Stock Buyback Program”) of an additional $100 million, for a total overall authorization to repurchase up to $500 million of the Company’s common stock. To date, the Company has repurchased 5.3 million shares, or $270.1 million, under the Stock Buyback Program. Repurchases may be made from time to time through open market rep…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Ms. Prichard’s appointment to the Board is effective as of March 11, 2026. Ms. Prichard will serve as a Class II Director, with a term expiring at the Company’s 2027 Annual Meeting. Ms. Prichard will also join the Compensation Committee and the Technology and Cybersecurity Committee. 2 Ms. Prichard brings significant experience working with compani…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.