Reading BILL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BILL free→Reading BILL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BILL free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with BILL trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 BILL trades at 14× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $52 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $35–$55. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 26%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -92.96x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.70 → $0.70 (+1.1% / 30d). 20 raised, 0 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 2 maintained. 58% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$166.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$505.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,294.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Weak guidance could signal slowing demand and hurt investor confidence in BILL's growth story.
Confirms:Q4 revenue guidance is below 11% year-over-year growth.
Disproves:Q4 revenue guidance is 11% or higher year-over-year growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BILL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 26, 2026, BILL Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain executive leadership and organizational updates, including: (i) the transition of John Rettig, the Company’s current President and Chief Operating Officer, to the role of Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer, effective immediately, and (ii) that Ken…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$35.00 – $55.00 (median $50.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BILL Bill Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has authorized a $1.0 billion share repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
The company plans to reduce its workforce by up to 30% to improve agility and efficiency.
The company aims to drive revenue growth while significantly improving profit margins.
Transition the current COO to the role of Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer to focus on strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: This reduction aims to raise margins. How well it works will affect future profits.
Confirms one read:Q4 results show better margins and profits after the restructuring.
Confirms the other:Q4 results show no gains in margins or profits, even with the workforce cut.
Why it matters: The new CRO will shape BILL's sales strategy and customer engagement. This is key for growth.
Confirms:BILL announces a new Chief Revenue Officer who has a strong track record in driving sales.
Disproves:No announcement of a new Chief Revenue Officer by the end of June 2026.
Why it matters: A completed buyback could show that management believes in BILL's value. It may also raise EPS.
Confirms:BILL completes the $1 billion share repurchase program within the next 12 months.
Disproves:BILL fails to execute the buyback program or suspends it.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, BILL Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the third fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The Company makes reference to certain non-GAAP financial information in both the press release and the conference call. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results i…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On May 7, 2026, the Company additionally announced that it will reduce its workforce by up to 30% (the “Restructuring”). The Restructuring is part of the Company’s ongoing efforts to improve organizational agility and efficiency, while also seeking to drive greater profitability. The Company currently estimates that it will incur charges of approximately $30 million to $60 million in connection with the Restructuring, consisting primarily of…
Regulation FD Disclosure. Finally, on May 7, 2026, the Company announced that its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $1.0 billion in shares of its outstanding common stock (the “2026 Share Repurchase Authorization”). This authorization includes unused amounts under the Company’s existing share repurchase program announced in August 2025. Pursuant to this authorization, the Company may repurchase shares from time to time through open market purchases, in privately negotiated…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 11, 2026, the Board of Directors of BILL Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Rohini Jain, the Chief Financial Officer of the Company, to serve additionally as the Company’s principal accounting officer for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Biographical and other information regarding Ms. Jain is set forth in…