Bill Holdings (BILL)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$50.70+0.06%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Bill Holdings’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.40 → 4.42 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
EPS	$0.96–$1non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	452.71M
EPS	—	0.894
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.83B
EPS	$3.56–$3.79non-GAAP	3.773
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.03B
EPS	—	4.419

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near 81.6%	Profit margin is near 82%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 78% next year	Gross margin: 81.66% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=81.6%. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 20, 202681.660075 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8e399716-9007-45c9-ab87-495607ae26db. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Revenue rose from $406.6 million in 2026-Q1 to $436.2 million in 2026-Q2, while GAAP operating income moved from a loss of $0.4 million to a loss of $34.3 million. Revenue growth continued, but the latest GAAP operating result shows limited progress on profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Core revenue growth of about 16% year-over-year	A primary condition in Bill Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=16% YoY.	Under Pressure	Core revenue growth falls below 10% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied transcript quarters. Revenue rose from $406.6 million in 2026-Q1 to $436.2 million in 2026-Q2, while GAAP operating income moved from a loss of $0.4 million to a loss of $34.3 million. Revenue growth continued, but the latest GAAP operating result shows limited progress on profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Execute $1.0 billion share repurchase program	A supporting condition in Bill Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase at least 3.5 million shares by 2026-Q2.	Intact	Share buybacks stop before $1 billion is repurchased	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce workforce by up to 30%	A supporting condition in Bill Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Complete up to 30% workforce reduction by 2026-Q2.	Intact	Workforce reduction is less than 20% by 2026-Q3	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.42

$4.07 → $4.42 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.03B

$2.08B → $2.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.07	$2,083,897,043	6 / 12
2026-07-25	$4.07	$2,083,897,043	6 / 12
2026-07-26	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 12
2026-07-27	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 12
2026-07-28	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 12
2026-07-29	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 12
2026-07-30	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 12
2026-07-31	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-01	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-02	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-03	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-04	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-05	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-06	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-07	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-08	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-09	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-10	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-11	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-12	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-13	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-14	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-15	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-16	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-17	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-18	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-19	$4.06	$2,071,594,584	6 / 13
2026-08-20	$4.27	$1,973,661,452	10 / 13
2026-08-21	$4.32	$2,031,657,843	10 / 13
2026-08-22	$4.38	$2,029,705,208	9 / 12
2026-08-23	$4.38	$2,029,705,208	10 / 13
2026-08-24	$4.38	$2,029,705,208	10 / 13
2026-08-25	$4.42	$2,027,165,555	10 / 13
2026-08-26	$4.40	$2,025,942,708	10 / 13
2026-08-27	$4.40	$2,025,942,708	10 / 13
2026-08-28	$4.40	$2,025,942,708	10 / 13
2026-08-29	$4.40	$2,025,942,708	10 / 13
2026-08-30	$4.40	$2,025,942,708	10 / 13
2026-08-31	$4.40	$2,025,942,708	10 / 13
2026-09-01	$4.40	$2,025,942,708	11 / 13
2026-09-02	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-03	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-17	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-18	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-19	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-20	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-21	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-22	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-23	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-24	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-25	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-26	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-27	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-28	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-29	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-09-30	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-10-01	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-10-02	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-10-03	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-10-04	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-10-05	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-10-06	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 13
2026-10-07	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-10-08	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-10-09	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-10-10	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-10-11	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-10-12	$4.40	$2,034,336,458	11 / 12
2026-10-13	$4.41	$2,034,348,958	11 / 12
2026-10-14	$4.41	$2,032,969,583	11 / 12
2026-10-15	$4.41	$2,032,969,583	11 / 12
2026-10-16	$4.41	$2,032,969,583	11 / 12
2026-10-17	$4.41	$2,032,969,583	11 / 12
2026-10-18	$4.41	$2,032,969,583	11 / 12
2026-10-19	$4.41	$2,032,969,583	11 / 12
2026-10-20	$4.41	$2,032,969,583	11 / 12
2026-10-21	$4.41	$2,032,969,583	11 / 12
2026-10-22	$4.42	$2,034,660,889	11 / 12
2026-10-23	$4.42	$2,034,660,889	11 / 12
2026-10-24	$4.42	$2,034,974,222	11 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	9
2026-06-01	14	10
2026-07-01	14	10
2026-08-01	14	9
2026-09-01	14	9
2026-10-01	13	9

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23 · prior Sep 1

$52.00 → $50.00-3.8%

$0$28.60$57.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near 81.6%Gross margin: 81.66%
Core revenue growth of about 16% year-over-yearPublished status: Under Pressure
Execute $1.0 billion share repurchase programRequired source inputs unavailable
Reduce workforce by up to 30%Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Bill Holdings outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BILL is a higher-risk growth business rather than a proven durable compounder, since it remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. The current long-term thesis is on watch: revenue has grown, but profitability progress and consistent execution are still uncertain.

What's priced into Bill Holdings

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain cautious. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but that does not remove the risk from weak fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has continued, but the latest GAAP operating loss widened, showing limited progress toward profitability. Management has repeatedly emphasized growth, margins, and AI-native products, yet AI adoption has not been quantified; share repurchases are the clearest delivered action. Recent results included an earnings beat, but performance remains below the industry cohort, and recent officer and COO changes add execution risk.

What Bill Holdings hinges on

The multi-year case depends on BILL sustaining growth while improving margins and demonstrating measurable adoption of its AI products. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or strong results and guidance from large technology peers could provide a favorable sector backdrop.