Reading BGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BGS free→Reading BGS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BGS free→NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with BGS trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.98 BGS trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $7.84 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 49% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.49x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.06 (-33.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
2 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$364.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,306.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well B&G Foods is managing costs and revenue in a tough market.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 4% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BGS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BGS B&G Foods, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
B&G Foods is prioritizing mergers and acquisitions as a strategic growth initiative.
B&G Foods is issuing senior notes to manage its capital allocation strategy.
B&G Foods continues to maintain a consistent dividend per share of $0.19.
Why it matters: B&G's senior notes change its capital structure. This impacts its future financial options.
Confirms:Credit rating agencies cut B&G Foods' rating after they issue senior notes.
Disproves:No change in credit ratings or positive market reception of the senior notes.
Why it matters: New M&A deals could signal growth and improve market position for B&G Foods.
Confirms:Announcement of a new M&A deal that adds significant revenue or market share.
Disproves:No new M&A announcements or delays in current negotiations.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation. Closing of Senior Notes Offering. On June 10, 2026, B&G Foods issued a press release announcing the closing of our private offering of $475.0 million aggregate principal amount of 11.00% senior notes due 2031 in a transaction exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The senior notes were issued at a price of 97.67% of their face value. We intend to use the net proceeds of the offering, together with borrowings under our…
Other Events. On June 3, 2026, B&G Foods issued a press release announcing the pricing of an offering of $475.0 million aggregate principal amount of 11.00% senior notes due 2031 in a transaction exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The senior notes are being issued at a price of 97.67%. The senior notes will be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by certain domestic subsidiaries of B&G Foods. The offering is expected to close on June 10, 2026, subject to…
Regulation FD Disclosure Senior Notes Offering. On June 1, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our intention to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $475.0 million aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2031 in a transaction exempt from registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The notes will be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by certain domestic subsidiaries of B&G Foods. We intend to use the net proceeds of the offering, together with cash on…