B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)

NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$2.10-2.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge B&G Foods, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	517.5M
EPS	—	0.256
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.74B–$1.78B	1.74B
EPS	$0.575–$0.675non-GAAP	0.542
EBITDA	$275M–$290Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.75B
EPS	—	0.508

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage $475M senior notes issuance	It plans to issue $475 million in senior notes to support capital needs.	Intact	Failure to manage debt servicing or additional debt issuance beyond $475M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. B&G Foods issued $475 million senior notes at 11.00% due 2031 to refinance 5.25% notes due 2027, increasing net interest expense by $2.7 million in Q2 2026. This refinancing strengthens the balance sheet but increased interest costs indicate mixed financial impact. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain dividend per share at $0.19	Dividend per share remains stable at $0.19 despite challenges.	Under Pressure	Dividend per share cut below $0.19	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend rate was halved from $0.76 to $0.38 per share per annum starting July 2026, with dividend per share reported at $0.19 in Q1 and Q2 2026. This reflects a deliberate reduction to support financial flexibility and reduce leverage, consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 20%	A supporting condition in B&G Foods, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~20%.	Under Pressure	Gross margin falls below 18% in FY26	Gross margin: 20.78% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~20%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 202620.77751 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bec45ff7-5c29-484d-8031-90a0f733ab85. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $0.62 per share	Dividend per share remains stable at $0.19 despite challenges.	Broken	EPS falls below $0.57 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $-0.05 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$0.62. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026-0.05 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bec45ff7-5c29-484d-8031-90a0f733ab85. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend rate was halved from $0.76 to $0.38 per share per annum starting July 2026, with dividend per share reported at $0.19 in Q1 and Q2 2026. This reflects a deliberate reduction to support financial flexibility and reduce leverage, consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Annual revenue near $1.75 billion	A primary condition in B&G Foods, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.75B.	Intact	Annual revenue falls below $1.73B in FY26	Revenue: $383.275M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.75B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 12, 2026383,275,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bec45ff7-5c29-484d-8031-90a0f733ab85. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management emphasized portfolio reshaping via acquisitions and divestitures including College Inn and Kitchen Basics acquisition and Green Giant U.S. Frozen divestiture. Net sales declined 6.8% to $792.2M in first two quarters 2026 due to divestitures, but adjusted EBITDA grew 0.8% to $118.0M, reflecting partial delivery and ongoing portfolio transition. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
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2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
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2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
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2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
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2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
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2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	4	2
2026-08-01	4	2
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 16 · prior Aug 13

$4.50 → $3.00-33.3%

$0$2.48$4.95

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage $475M senior notes issuanceDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend per share at $0.19Published status: Under Pressure
Gross margin near 20%Published status: Under Pressure
EPS near $0.62 per sharePublished status: Broken
Annual revenue near $1.75 billionRevenue: $383.275M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

B&G Foods, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a portfolio-transition and turnaround-like business, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view remains in a watch state: momentum improved, but recent performance sits below its industry cohort and earnings quality remains loss-making.

What's priced into B&G Foods, Inc.

The valuation model indicates BGS trades at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may already be demanding. The model has low confidence, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility, so valuation evidence is limited.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, sales have declined as divestitures reshape the portfolio, while adjusted EBITDA has grown modestly, showing partial delivery. Management is also facing higher interest costs after refinancing, and the dividend rate was cut to support financial flexibility. Recent misses and a 41% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk.

What B&G Foods, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on acquisitions and divestitures improving the business without erasing operating gains, and on management executing through the CEO transition. Near term, reaffirmed guidance needs to hold; weaker jobs data could add pressure, while strong results and guidance from sector peers could improve the backdrop.