Reading AVPT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVPT free→Reading AVPT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVPT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, helping AVPT compared to sector peers, which trade above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like MSFT and ORCL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 AVPT trades at 42× p/e — 1.5× the 28× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $8.92 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $12–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 22% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.08 (-4.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 71% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$472.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,344.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into AvePoint's performance and future outlook. This can impact stock sentiment.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth that is better than expected.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue growth that is worse than expected.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVPT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, and the related information in the exhibit attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$12.00 – $18.00 (median $15.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVPT AvePoint, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target a 26% year-over-year growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) by the end of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. ARR guidance midpoint is $526.4 million for 2026, reflecting a 26% growth target. The trajectory shows persistent focus on ARR growth, with guidance aligning with stated goals.
“Total ARR of $523.4 million to $529.4 million, or year-over-year growth of 26% at the midpoint.”
“Total ARR of $525.1 million to $531.1 million.”
Target a 19% year-over-year revenue growth for the second quarter of 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue guidance midpoint is $121.3 million for Q2 2026, indicating a 19% growth target. This reflects a strong focus on revenue expansion, with guidance supporting the stated growth ambition.
Target a 22% year-over-year revenue growth for the full fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance midpoint is $512.4 million for 2026, reflecting a 22% growth target. The company is maintaining its focus on revenue growth, with guidance aligning with its stated objectives.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in AvePoint's business. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms:AvePoint's revenue growth falls below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the sector median growth rate.
of Form 8-K) 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. AvePoint, Inc. Date: February 26, 2026 By: /s/ BRIAN MICHAEL BROWN Brian Michael Brown Chief Legal and Compliance Officer Date: February 26, 2026 By: /s/ JAMES CACI James Caci Chief Financial Officer
in this Current Report on Form 8-K, and the related information in the exhibit attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Other Events Underwriting Agreement On September 16, 2025, AvePoint, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with Jefferies LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC., Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited and UBS Securities, LLC as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “ Underwriters ”), and certain selling securityholders named in Schedule II thereto (the “ Selling Securityholders ”), relating to the und…
of Form 8-K) 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. AvePoint, Inc. Date: August 7, 2025 By: /s/ BRIAN MICHAEL BROWN Brian Michael Brown Chief Legal and Compliance Officer, and Secretary Date: August 7, 2025 By: /s/ JAMES CACI James Caci Chief Financial Officer
“Total revenues of $120.3 million to $122.3 million, or year-over-year growth of 19% at the midpoint.”
“Total revenues of $509.4 million to $515.4 million, or year-over-year growth of 22% at the midpoint.”
“Total revenues of $509.4 million to $517.4 million.”