AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$16.51+2.67%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AvePoint, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.50 → 0.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$128.2M–$130.2M	—
Operating income	$21M–$22Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth (midpoint) (constant currency)	19%	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	139.48M
EPS	—	0.107
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	510.98M
EPS	—	0.441
Operating income	$86.4M–$88.4Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth (midpoint) (constant currency)	21%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	615.14M
EPS	—	0.483

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve 26% growth in Annual Recurring Revenue to $526.4 million	It aims 26% growth in recurring revenue to $526 million.	Improving	ARR growth falls below 20% by year-end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. ARR grew from $414.8 million expected in 2025 to guidance of $522.1 million to $528.1 million for 2026, reflecting 26% year-over-year growth at midpoint. Management is delivering on this ARR growth target consistently. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve about 22% revenue growth to $512.4 million in 2026	AvePoint grows revenue about 22% yearly to $512 million in 2026.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 19% in Q2 2026	Revenue growth: 22.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22% YoY revenue growth to $512.4 million. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 6, 202622.032386 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2ab0b960-02a7-480b-b7eb-dbf18348678e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $410.6 million expected in 2025 to guidance of $508.5 million to $512.5 million for 2026, reflecting 22% year-over-year growth at midpoint. Management is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with this target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain operating profit near $94.6 million in 2026	Profit from operations stays strong near $95 million.	Intact	Operating profit falls below $80 million in 2026	Operating margin: 8.21% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$94.6 million operating profit. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 6, 20268.212378 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2ab0b960-02a7-480b-b7eb-dbf18348678e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.48

$0.50 → $0.48 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.62B

$0.62B → $0.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-07-25	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-07-26	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-07-27	$0.50	$616,425,392	6 / 11
2026-07-28	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-07-29	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-07-30	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-07-31	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-08-01	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-08-02	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-08-03	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-08-04	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-08-05	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-08-06	$0.50	$616,263,260	12 / 15
2026-08-07	$0.50	$616,427,021	6 / 11
2026-08-08	$0.49	$615,983,420	10 / 14
2026-08-09	$0.49	$615,983,420	10 / 14
2026-08-10	$0.49	$615,983,420	10 / 14
2026-08-11	$0.49	$615,105,460	12 / 15
2026-08-12	$0.50	$615,163,190	12 / 15
2026-08-13	$0.50	$615,163,190	12 / 15
2026-08-14	$0.50	$616,427,021	6 / 11
2026-08-15	$0.50	$616,427,021	6 / 11
2026-08-16	$0.50	$616,427,021	6 / 11
2026-08-17	$0.50	$616,427,021	6 / 11
2026-08-18	$0.50	$616,427,021	6 / 11
2026-08-19	$0.50	$616,427,021	6 / 11
2026-08-20	$0.50	$615,216,780	6 / 11
2026-08-21	$0.50	$615,216,780	6 / 11
2026-08-22	$0.50	$615,216,780	6 / 11
2026-08-23	$0.50	$615,216,780	6 / 11
2026-08-24	$0.50	$615,216,780	6 / 11
2026-08-25	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-08-26	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-08-27	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-08-28	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-08-29	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-08-30	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-08-31	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-01	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-02	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-03	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-04	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-05	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-06	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-07	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-08	$0.50	$615,216,751	6 / 11
2026-09-09	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-10	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-11	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-12	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-13	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-14	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-15	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-16	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-17	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-18	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-19	$0.50	$615,216,751	7 / 11
2026-09-20	$0.50	$615,218,994	7 / 11
2026-09-21	$0.50	$615,218,994	7 / 11
2026-09-22	$0.50	$615,218,994	7 / 11
2026-09-23	$0.50	$615,218,994	7 / 11
2026-09-24	$0.50	$615,218,994	7 / 11
2026-09-25	$0.50	$615,218,994	6 / 11
2026-09-26	$0.50	$615,218,994	6 / 11
2026-09-27	$0.50	$615,218,994	6 / 11
2026-09-28	$0.50	$615,218,994	6 / 11
2026-09-29	$0.50	$615,218,994	6 / 11
2026-09-30	$0.50	$615,218,994	6 / 11
2026-10-01	$0.50	$615,248,765	6 / 11
2026-10-02	$0.50	$615,248,765	6 / 11
2026-10-03	$0.50	$615,248,765	6 / 11
2026-10-04	$0.50	$615,248,765	6 / 11
2026-10-05	$0.50	$615,248,765	6 / 11
2026-10-06	$0.50	$615,248,765	6 / 11
2026-10-07	$0.50	$615,248,765	6 / 12
2026-10-08	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-09	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-10	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-11	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-12	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-13	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-14	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-15	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-16	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-17	$0.48	$615,143,043	7 / 12
2026-10-18	$0.48	$615,142,168	7 / 12
2026-10-19	$0.48	$615,142,168	7 / 12
2026-10-20	$0.48	$615,142,168	7 / 12
2026-10-21	$0.48	$615,142,168	7 / 12
2026-10-22	$0.48	$615,142,168	7 / 12
2026-10-23	$0.48	$615,142,168	7 / 12
2026-10-24	$0.48	$615,142,168	7 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	4
2026-06-01	10	4
2026-07-01	11	4
2026-08-01	11	4
2026-09-01	11	4
2026-10-01	12	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 6

$17.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$9.35$18.70

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve 26% growth in Annual Recurring Revenue to $526.4 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve about 22% revenue growth to $512.4 million in 2026Revenue growth: 22.03%
Maintain operating profit near $94.6 million in 2026Operating margin: 8.21%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AvePoint, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented software investment, with recent results showing strong execution rather than a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, but risk remains elevated and confidence in the evidence is medium.

What's priced into AvePoint, Inc.

The valuation is described as expensive, despite being cheap versus peers, so those signals point in different directions. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting market assumptions are ahead of the model’s view; the available evidence does not specify exactly what growth the market expects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: Q2 2026 revenue grew 22% year over year, above the 19% growth guidance midpoint, and management has raised guidance. Management remains on track with its 2026 revenue and ARR growth priorities, though a future guidance cut would raise credibility concerns.

What AvePoint, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on management sustaining its stated growth priorities and maintaining the recent pattern of strong results. Near term, a reversal and guidance cut would be a negative signal; rate cuts or continued strong results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop.