AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$12.96-1.67%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
AvePoint grows revenue about 22% yearly to $512 million in 2026. It aims 26% growth in recurring revenue to $526 million. Profit from operations stays strong near $95 million. The company leads in data management for Microsoft 365, a growing market.
Revenue growth could slow below 19% in Q2 2026. Recurring revenue might miss the 26% growth target. Competition could hurt profit margins and slow growth.
The price is about 15% above our fair value near $11. Analysts expect 25% revenue growth, close to management targets. Our view aligns with this growth but sees risk if targets slip.
Breaks if: ARR growth falls below 20% by year-end 2026
Continue to grow Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) by 26% year-over-year by the end of 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
AVPT is positioned as a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth. The current thesis state is watchful, as recent performance has been strong but shows signs of slipping.
The market currently prices AVPT as justified, with a low fragility tier. It is seen as cheap compared to peers, but there is an expectations gap indicating that some growth may already be factored in.
Management is on track to achieve its growth targets, with ARR and revenue growth both exceeding expectations recently. However, there is a low probability of missing future targets, which is a risk to monitor given the recent history of industry peers.
The thesis hinges on maintaining guidance and avoiding any credibility hits from potential downward revisions. Additionally, favorable conditions such as Fed rate cuts and strong performance from sector leaders could support AVPT's growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. The company aims for 26% ARR growth by year-end and 22% revenue growth by year-end 2026.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. ARR grew from $414.8 million expected in 2025 to guidance of $522.1 million to $528.1 million for 2026, reflecting 26% year-over-year growth at midpoint. Management is delivering on this ARR growth target consistently.
“For the full year 2026, the Company now expects: Total ARR of $522.1 million to $528.1 million, or year-over-year growth of 26% at the midpoint.”
“For the full year 2026, the Company now expects: Total ARR of $523.4 million to $529.4 million, or year-over-year growth of 26% at the midpoint.”
“For the full year 2026, the Company expects: Total ARR of $525.1 million to $531.1 million.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 19% in Q2 2026
Target total revenue growth of 22% year-over-year for the full fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $410.6 million expected in 2025 to guidance of $508.5 million to $512.5 million for 2026, reflecting 22% year-over-year growth at midpoint. Management is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with this target.
“For the full year 2026, the Company now expects: Total revenues of $508.5 million to $512.5 million, or year-over-year growth of 22% at the midpoint.”
“For the full year 2026, the Company now expects: Total revenues of $509.4 million to $515.4 million, or year-over-year growth of 22% at the midpoint.”
“For the full year 2026, the Company expects: Total revenues of $509.4 million to $517.4 million.”
Target revenue growth of approximately 19% year-over-year for the second quarter of 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Q2 2026 revenue was $124.5 million, up 22% year-over-year, exceeding the guidance midpoint of 19% growth. Management is delivering revenue growth above the stated target for Q2.
“For the second quarter of 2026, the Company expects: Total revenues of $120.3 million to $122.3 million, or year-over-year growth of 19% at the midpoint.”
Breaks if: Operating profit falls below $80 million in 2026
Overall, AVPT's strong management and recent performance provide a solid foundation, but elevated risks require careful observation. Not investment advice.
“For the second quarter of 2026, the Company expects revenue growth of 18% at the midpoint on a constant currency basis.”