Reading ASLE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASLE free→Reading ASLE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASLE free→NASDAQIndustrialsAirports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with ASLE trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.27. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.29 ASLE trades at 20× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $6.94 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.23 (+15.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$347.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,400.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth is stabilizing or declining. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth speeding up again. It is moving back to past highs.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue growth is still going down. This is compared to past quarters.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASLE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, AerSale Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Se…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASLE AerSale Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) capabilities and capacity to benefit customers and build long-term shareholder value.
Continue to monetize the company's strong inventory position to drive growth and shareholder value.
Leverage the regulatory compliance deadline to drive demand for AerSafe installations.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026, AerSale Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Sectio…
Other Events. On December 4, 2025, a warehouse leased by AerSale Corporation (the “Company”) located at the Roswell, New Mexico airport was destroyed by a fire. No fatalities or injuries have been reported. The cause of the fire is currently unknown and under investigation by the Company in collaboration with the appropriate authorities. Management is assessing the impact of the incident to the Company’s business, results of operations, and financial condition; however, based on preliminary…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, AerSale Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, AerSale Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…