Reading AOUT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AOUT free→Reading AOUT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AOUT free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AOUT trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.89. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.89 AOUT trades at 35× p/e — 2.3× the 15× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $8.84 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 12% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.27x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.20 → $-0.30 (-50.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$190.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$393.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,682.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving or still losing money. Investors will pay close attention to this.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit or smaller loss compared to the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AOUT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, American Outdoor Brands, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three months ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Leisure Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AOUT American Outdoor Brands, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | elevated |
HAS Hasbro | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOLF Acushnet Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BC Brunswick | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MAT Mattel | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how much people are spending. This impacts American Outdoor Brands.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease more than 0.5% month over month.
Why it matters: GDP data will show the health of the economy. A strong economy can boost sales for American Outdoor Brands.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for the first quarter.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for the first quarter.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 10, 2026, we and certain of our direct and indirect Subsidiaries amended our secured loan and security agreement pursuant to Amendment No. 3 to Loan and Security Agreement, or the Amended Loan and Security Agreement, with certain lenders and TD Bank, N.A., as a lender and as agent. AOB Products Company, a Missouri corporation, and Crimson Trace Corporation, an Oregon corporation, our Subsidiaries, are the borrowers under the Amended Loan an…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The description of the Amended Loan and Security Agreement set forth under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 9, 2025, American Outdoor Brands, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the three months ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events. On October 2, 2025, we announced that our Board of Directors has approved a program to repurchase up to $10.0 million of our outstanding shares of common stock commencing on October 1, 2025 and ending on September 30, 2026. The amount and timing of any repurchases will depend on a number of factors, including price, trading volume, general market conditions, legal requirements, and other factors. The repurchases may be made on the open market, in block trades, or in privately ne…