Reading AMPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPL free→Reading AMPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPL free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 261% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If AMPL cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.84 AMPL trades at 3× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $1.91 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $10–$12. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 258% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.29x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.03 → $-0.01 (-134.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 11 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · 44.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$207.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$660.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,779.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it may hurt Amplitude's performance. This could signal a tougher environment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMPL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Amplitude, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$10.00 – $12.00 (median $10.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-02-19
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMPL Amplitude, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve positive non-GAAP operating income for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has guided for a non-GAAP operating income of $2.5 - $6.5 million for 2026. Despite previous losses, this guidance indicates a focus on achieving positive operating income, showing limited progress towards this goal.
“Guidance: 'Non-GAAP Operating Income (Loss) $2.5 - $6.5 million for 2026.'”
“Guidance: 'Non-GAAP Operating Income (Loss) $7.0 - $13.0 million for 2026.'”
“Guidance: 'Non-GAAP Operating Income (Loss) $(2.0) - $3.0 million for 2025.'”
Management targets revenue growth to reach $400 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance for 2026 is set at $397.0 - $403.0 million, indicating a growth trajectory from 2025's revenue of $342.8 million. The company is delivering on its revenue growth target.
Management aims to improve EPS to a positive range by the end of fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has guided for a positive EPS of $0.03 - $0.06 for 2026, a significant improvement from the negative EPS of -$0.17 in 2026-Q1. This indicates a focus on improving profitability, with limited progress so far.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, Amplitude, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 24, 2026, Amplitude Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Thomas Hansen will be departing from his role as President of the Company, effective March 31, 2026. Mr. Hansen will serve the Company in an advisory capacity through April 1, 2027 to support continuity and a smooth transition. Mr. Hansen’s departure from the Company is not the res…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 5, 2025, Amplitude, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Ex…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, Amplitude, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange A…
“Guidance: 'Full Year 2026 Revenue $397.0 - $403.0 million.'”
“Guidance: 'Full Year 2026 Revenue $390.0 - $398.0 million.'”
“Guidance: 'Full Year 2025 Revenue $335.2 - $338.2 million.'”
“Guidance: 'Non-GAAP Net Income (Loss) Per Share, diluted $0.03 - $0.06 for 2026.'”
“Guidance: 'Non-GAAP Net Income (Loss) Per Share, diluted $0.08 - $0.13 for 2026.'”
“Guidance: 'Non-GAAP Net Income (Loss) Per Share $0.04 - $0.08 for 2025.'”