Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
$17.10-1.95%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AMPL beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Application Software is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Positive non-GAAP operating income of $2.5M to $6.5M in 2026: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 18% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet, guidance credibility.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 55% growth a year, above the roughly 23% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 53% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAMPL’s thesis rests on its recent revenue growth, though weak financial performance and a Mania market cycle temper the case. Revenue grew 21% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and non-GAAP EPS beat consensus. AMPL trades at 6× sales versus a 3.8× peer median and 4.3× its historical multiple. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast, leaving expectations full. A 29% next-quarter miss probability and the valuation premium create risks. The primary operating-income pillar is under pressure because its metric mapping needs verification. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. AMPL is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering AMPL (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare AMPL with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMPL Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Application Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put AMPL next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
CTO selling stock may raise concerns about leadership confidence.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Achieve positive non-GAAP operating income
Indicates potential for profitability, aligning with management's objectives.