Amplitude, Inc. (AMPL)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$17.42+2.05%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Amplitude, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.17 → 0.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$105.6M–$108M	—
EPS	$0.02–$0.03non-GAAP	—
Operating income	$2.5M–$4.5Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	109M
EPS	—	0.064
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$407.2M–$411.2M	410.29M
EPS	$0.06–$0.08non-GAAP	0.074
Operating income	$6.3M–$9.3Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	477.3M
EPS	—	0.173

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS improves to positive $0.03 to $0.06 in 2026	EPS is expected to turn positive, reaching up to $0.06 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS stays negative below $0 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $-0.27 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.03 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-0.27 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d65e0c00-3e18-4055-b6a1-e908e1026560. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Leadership stability and confidence	A supporting condition in Amplitude, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major insider stock sales or leadership departures.	Under Pressure	Key executives sell large stock amounts or leave suddenly	CTO sold $178.2k stock; President departed (successor in place) CTO Curtis Liu sold $178,183 in stock; President Thomas Hansen departed with a successor in place. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Positive non-GAAP operating income of $2.5M to $6.5M in 2026	The company targets positive operating income of up to $6.5 million this year.	Under Pressure	Operating income remains negative below $0 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied transcript quarters. Management's August full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance was $6.3-$9.3 million, compared with $2.5-$6.5 million in May; reported 2026-Q2 GAAP operating income was -$35.174 million. The raised non-GAAP outlook indicates progress in management's stated measure, while GAAP operating income remained negative. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $400 million in fiscal 2026	Amplitude aims to grow revenue to about $400 million in 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $340 million in FY26	Revenue: $100.886M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$400 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026100,886,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d65e0c00-3e18-4055-b6a1-e908e1026560. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.17

$0.13 → $0.17 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.48B

$0.46B → $0.48B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-07-30	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-08-02	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-08-05	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$0.13	$461,828,530	12 / 12
2026-08-07	$0.16	$470,747,642	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$0.16	$473,284,320	11 / 12
2026-08-09	$0.16	$473,284,320	11 / 12
2026-08-10	$0.16	$473,284,320	11 / 12
2026-08-11	$0.16	$472,859,105	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$0.17	$474,624,100	12 / 12
2026-08-13	$0.17	$474,620,440	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$0.16	$472,859,105	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$0.16	$472,859,105	7 / 9
2026-08-16	$0.16	$472,859,105	7 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.16	$472,859,105	7 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.16	$472,859,105	7 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.16	$472,859,105	7 / 9
2026-08-20	$0.16	$472,859,105	7 / 9
2026-08-21	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-22	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-24	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-25	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-26	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-05	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-06	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-07	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-08	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-09	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-10	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-11	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-12	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-13	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-14	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-15	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-16	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-17	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-18	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-19	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-20	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-21	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-22	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-23	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-24	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-25	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-26	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-27	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-28	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-29	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-09-30	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-01	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-02	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-03	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-04	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-05	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-06	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-07	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-08	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-09	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$0.17	$477,152,042	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$0.17	$477,302,665	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$0.17	$477,302,665	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$0.17	$477,302,665	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$0.17	$477,302,665	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$0.17	$477,302,665	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$0.17	$477,302,665	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$0.17	$477,302,665	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$0.17	$477,302,829	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$0.17	$477,302,829	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$0.17	$477,302,829	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	3
2026-06-01	9	3
2026-07-01	9	3
2026-08-01	9	3
2026-09-01	9	3
2026-10-01	9	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS improves to positive $0.03 to $0.06 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Leadership stability and confidencePublished status: Under Pressure
Positive non-GAAP operating income of $2.5M to $6.5M in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches about $400 million in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Amplitude, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AMPL is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue and ARR are growing, while recent performance is weak and the signal has turned cautious.

What's priced into Amplitude, Inc.

AMPL is valued at a 1.51 premium to peers, and the evidence points to an expensive valuation with a re-rating as the main divergence driver. The expectations gap is 0.33, but the supplied evidence does not explain its scale or direction, so what the market specifically assumes is unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue rose from $93.492 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $100.886 million in the second, while ARR reached $410 million, up 22% year over year. Management raised its full-year non-GAAP operating income outlook in August, but second-quarter GAAP operating income remained negative, and the August earnings miss adds execution risk. AI product work continues, though the evidence does not show how much revenue it generates.

What Amplitude, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on customer adoption sustaining revenue and ARR growth, and on management moving toward positive non-GAAP operating income without relying on that measure alone. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or continued strong results from sector peers could support the broader technology backdrop, but do not resolve AMPL’s company-specific execution risks.