Reading ALTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALTG free→Reading ALTG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALTG free→NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 79% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.11 ALTG trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $43 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 83% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.90x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.12 → $-0.07 (+43.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$268.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$549.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,139.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Alta's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down to under 5% each year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALTG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the regis…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALTG Alta Equipment Group, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve its updated Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $167.5 million to $182.5 million for the 2026 fiscal year.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was updated from a range of $172.5M-$187.5M to $167.5M-$182.5M for 2026. The company has shown limited progress as revenue decreased from $509.1M in 2025-Q4 to $410.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in achieving the lower end of the guidance.
“The Company updates our guidance range and now expects to report Adjusted EBITDA between $167.5 million and $182.5 million for the 2026 fiscal year.”
“The Company released its 2026 guidance range and expects to report Adjusted EBITDA between $172.5 million and $187.5 million for the 2026 fiscal year.”
The company aims to maintain positive cash flow from operations to support its financial stability.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased from $2.5M in 2025-Q3 to $20.8M in 2026-Q1, showing progress in maintaining positive cash flow. This aligns with management's focus on financial stability, despite revenue challenges.
The company continues to focus on mergers and acquisitions as a strategic priority to drive growth.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company entered into a Cooperation Agreement with Mill Road Capital III, L.P., indicating a strategic focus on M&A activities. However, financials show a decline in revenue from $509.1M in 2025-Q4 to $410.5M in 2026-Q1, suggesting limited immediate impact from these activities.
“Alta Equipment Group entered into a Cooperation Agreement with Mill Road Capital III, L.P.”
Other Events. On April 3, 2026, Alta Equipment Group Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors has declared a dividend of $625 per share of its outstanding 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock (the “Series A Preferred”), with the record date for the dividend April 15, 2026 and the payment date April 30, 2026. This will equate to a dividend of $0.625 for each of the outstanding Depositary Shares representing a 1/1000th fractional…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the regis…
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement. On January 21, 2026, Alta Equipment Group Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a Cooperation Agreement (the “Cooperation Agreement”), between the Company and Mill Road Capital III, L.P. (“Mill Road”), pursuant to which the Company granted Mill Road the right to appoint one observer to attend meetings of the Board, including any meetings of the committees of the Board, and to participate in discussions of matters brought to the Board or any committee the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 31, 2025, Alta Equipment Group Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an agreement with Craig Brubaker to serve as the Material Handling segment's Chief Operating Officer, no longer serving as an executive officer or Section 16 officer of the Company according to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, effective immediately. Under the agreement…
“Cash from operating activities was $20.8 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $33.9 million.”
“Cash from operating activities was $2.5 million.”