Alta Equipment Group, Inc. (ALTG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$5.94-2.94%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Alta aims to earn about $168M in adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Cash from operations rose to $20.8M in early 2026. The company is working to keep cash flow positive. This could help it fix its losses over time.
Alta is still losing money and sales fell in early 2026. Profit goals were lowered recently. The recent sharp stock drop shows investors doubt the turnaround. Problems in sales and profit may continue.
The market expects about 5% revenue growth. Our fair value is $33, above current price. The market prices in a modest recovery but not a full turnaround yet.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $167.5M in FY26
Breaks if: Operating cash flow turns negative over next 4 quarters
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story within the industrials sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is navigating headwinds and has recently shown mixed financial performance.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility, as ALTG is considered cheap compared to peers. However, there is a significant expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating more favorable outcomes than what has been delivered recently.
Management is focused on achieving adjusted EBITDA guidance and maintaining positive cash flow, but recent results have been neutral. The company has shown some improvement in momentum, but it remains to be seen if this will translate into consistent performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a tailwind for ALTG. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could adversely affect ALTG's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a more favorable outlook for ALTG. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue generating positive operating cash flow to support business operations and financial health.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating cash flow was $20.8 million in 2026-Q1 and $26.1 million year to date in 2026-Q2, showing positive cash generation. Management has consistently emphasized cash flow generation and rental fleet optimization, indicating delivery on this priority.
“During the quarter, we generated positive operating cash flow, further optimized our rental fleet, and reduced interest expense by approximately $2.8 million compared to the prior year.”
“We generated $20.8 million of operating cash flows in the quarter, representing a $38.3 million improvement compared to last year.”
“Net cash provided by operating activities of $33.9 million.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 4.6% YoY next year
In the next 1 to 3 years, ALTG's performance will depend heavily on sector dynamics and management's ability to execute on their priorities. Not investment advice.