Alta Equipment Group, Inc. (ALTG)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.22-2.20%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alta Equipment Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	523.21M
EPS	—	-0.214
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.86B
EPS	—	-1.312
EBITDA	$167.5M–$177.5Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.92B
EPS	—	-0.974

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA of at least $167.5M in 2026	Alta aims to earn about $168M in adjusted EBITDA in 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $167.5M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $28.1 million in 2026-Q1 and improved to $48.6 million in 2026-Q2. The Company tightened its full-year 2026 guidance range from $167.5-$182.5 million to $167.5-$177.5 million. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward the guidance range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Positive cash flow from operations	The company is working to keep cash flow positive.	Improving	Operating cash flow turns negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $5.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20265,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating cash flow was $20.8 million in 2026-Q1 and improved to $26.1 million year to date in 2026-Q2. Interest expense decreased by $2.8 million year over year in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering positive cash flow and cost reduction. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth near 5% per year	A supporting condition in Alta Equipment Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4.6% YoY.	Improving	Revenue growth falls below 4.6% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA was $28.1 million in 2026-Q1 and improved to $48.6 million in 2026-Q2. The Company tightened its full-year 2026 guidance range from $167.5-$182.5 million to $167.5-$177.5 million. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward the guidance range. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.95B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,948,954,000	3 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,934,504,000	1 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,934,504,000	1 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,934,504,000	1 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,934,364,000	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,934,364,000	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	3	1
2026-09-01	3	1
2026-10-01	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Northland SecuritiesSep 25

$12.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$6.60$13.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA of at least $167.5M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Positive cash flow from operationsCash from operations: $5.3M
Revenue growth near 5% per yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-39.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alta Equipment Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround scenario with a focus on improving operational metrics. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to mixed signals in recent performance and high risk factors.

What's priced into Alta Equipment Group, Inc.

The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that ALTG is viewed as cheap compared to its peers. However, the valuation is justified given the company's loss-making status and the current headwinds in the sector.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on achieving adjusted EBITDA guidance and maintaining positive cash flow, with recent improvements noted. However, the company remains loss-making, and its recent financial performance is below that of its industry peers, indicating a need for continued scrutiny.

What Alta Equipment Group, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for ALTG. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could further challenge ALTG's outlook.