Reading ALRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALRM free→Reading ALRM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ALRM free→NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ALRM trades above typical levels, and its valuation is expensive. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 ALRM trades at 17× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $58 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.67 → $0.65 (-3.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$314.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,879.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong revenue growth momentum. It reflects management's confidence in ongoing demand.
Confirms:SaaS and license revenue reported at $185.5 million or higher for Q2 2026.
Disproves:SaaS and license revenue reported below $185.5 million for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALRM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALRM Alarm.Com, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operations to support growth and investment.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps growth and keeps finances stable. It shows the company makes cash.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $50 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $50 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company manages costs well. This helps with long-term profits.
Confirms:Operating income is better than in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income falls or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this revenue shows good business performance and growth.
Confirms:Total revenue reported at $1.0595 billion or higher for 2026.
Disproves:Total revenue was below $1.0595 billion for 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective March 12, 2026, and due to a personal family issue that requires substantial focus, Jeff Bedell will temporarily relinquish his duties as President, Venture Businesses and Corporate Strategy, of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”). Mr. Bedell will continue as a full-time employee of the Company and serve as a senior advisor to the Ch…
and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any of the Company's filings under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by…