Alarm.Com, Inc. (ALRM)

NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$64.14+2.64%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alarm.Com, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
SaaS and license revenue	$189.8M–$190M	—
EBITDA	$221M–$223Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	274.39M
EPS	—	0.75
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.08B
SaaS and license revenue	$754M–$754.4M	—
EPS	—	2.893
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.13B
EPS	—	3.07

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations grows to about $214 million in 2026	Cash flow is strong at about $214 million.	Under Pressure	Cash flow falls below $180 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $86.763M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $214 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202686,763,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $2.79 in 2026	A primary condition in Alarm.Com, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.79 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $2.50 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.79 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 67329024-48a6-4f6f-8dcd-464d42d17913. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Operating income was $32.5 million in 2026-Q2, slightly above $32.0 million in 2025-Q2, showing stable profitability. Management raised non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA guidance from $215.0 million to $222.0 million for 2026, indicating improved profitability expectations. The trajectory shows limited progress but stable operating income with improved EBITDA guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to about $1.065 billion in 2026	Alarm.com grows revenue about 5% yearly, reaching $1.065 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $1,000 million in FY26	Revenue: $277.734M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1,065 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026277,734,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 67329024-48a6-4f6f-8dcd-464d42d17913. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.97 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.12B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-26	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-27	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-28	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-29	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-07-31	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-01	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-02	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-03	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-04	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-05	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-06	$2.97	$1,115,456,400	6 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$3.00	$1,122,521,600	6 / 5
2026-08-09	$3.06	$1,133,334,230	6 / 5
2026-08-10	$3.06	$1,133,334,230	6 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.06	$1,133,334,230	6 / 5
2026-08-13	$3.06	$1,133,334,230	6 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	3	1
2026-06-01	3	3	1
2026-07-01	3	3	1
2026-08-01	3	2	1
2026-09-01	3	2	1
2026-10-01	3	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations grows to about $214 million in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
EPS near $2.79 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows to about $1.065 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alarm.Com, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a steady-growth software and platform business, with robust earnings quality and stable management. The thesis has improved after two recent earnings beats, but the current state remains watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.

What's priced into Alarm.Com, Inc.

The evidence tags the shares as stretched and expensive, despite also indicating they are cheap versus peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is 0.11, but the snapshot does not explain its scale; it also reports no concentrated fragility signals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have a low stated miss risk, though peers have missed recently and ALRM has a deep miss in its history. Over the multi-year view, SaaS and license revenue, total revenue, and operating cash flow are progressing, with management priorities on track and full-year SaaS guidance raised.

What Alarm.Com, Inc. hinges on

The near-term thesis would weaken if management cuts guidance on the next call. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and the evidence says rate cuts could weigh on Financials; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.