Reading ALKT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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Track ALKT free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, ALKT is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 ALKT trades at 33× p/e — 1.6× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $10 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 53% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.90x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.16 (+0.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 7 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$219.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$570.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,161.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below median, it signals a slowdown in the sector. This could impact Alkami's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reports show a decline below median levels.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above median levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALKT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 1, 2026 , Alkami Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Fifth Amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Company’s Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated as of April 29, 2022 (the “Credit Agreement”), with Silicon Valley Bank, a division of First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company, as Administrative Agent, and the other lenders party thereto. The Amendment permits the Company to use up to $100,000,000 of its cash to repurchase its common sto…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ALKT Alkami Technology, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Alkami aims to achieve GAAP total revenue in the range of $527.1 million to $530.9 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $443.25M in 2025 to $530.9M in 2026, indicating a growth trajectory. Alkami is delivering on its revenue growth priority with consistent upward guidance.
“GAAP total revenue in the range of $527.1 million to $530.9 million.”
“GAAP total revenue in the range of $525.5 million to $530.5 million.”
Alkami targets adjusted EBITDA in the range of $94.9 million to $97.9 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $56.5M in 2025 to $97.9M in 2026, showing a strong upward trajectory. Alkami is delivering on its EBITDA growth target with consistent guidance increases.
“Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $94.9 million to $97.9 million.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026 Alkami Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “E…
Other Events. On April 23, 2026, the Board authorized a share repurchase program to repurchase up to $100 million of the Company’s common stock. Repurchases under the program may be made from time to time, at management’s discretion, using a variety of methods, including open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, and other means all in accordance with federal securities laws and other applicable legal requirements, including pursuant to one or more Rule 10b5-1 trading plans. Th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 31, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Alkami Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) approved the appointment of Jeffrey (Jeff) Fox and Judson (Jud) Linville (Mr. Fox and Mr. Linville, collectively, the “New Directors”) to the Board, such appointments effective immediately following the conclusion of the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026 Alkami Technology, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ending December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
“Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $93.5 million to $97.5 million.”