Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$16.03+0.50%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alkami Technology, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	140.37M
EPS	—	0.254
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	529.89M
EPS	—	0.788
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	618.18M
EPS	—	1.083

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA target near $97.9M in fiscal 2026	Profitability is improving with adjusted EBITDA guidance rising from $56.5M to nearly $98M.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $56.5M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $12.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $19.4 million in 2026-Q2. Management provided guidance for fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $96.0 million to $98.0 million. The trajectory is delivering with improving EBITDA and maintained guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful execution of partnerships and buybacks	A supporting condition in Alkami Technology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or expand partnerships and execute buybacks as planned.	Intact	Failure to announce new partnerships or halt buybacks	Buyback $100M active; New partnership (MANTL/FVSBank) announced May 2026 buyback authorization and MANTL/FVSBank partnership confirm execution. Recent stock drop is valuation-driven, not execution failure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to about $530.9M in fiscal 2026	A primary condition in Alkami Technology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$530.9M total revenue.	Intact	Revenue falls below $443M in FY26	Revenue: $129.844M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$530.9M total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026129,844,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7aa024f3-e6f1-4dde-811d-dd03a1e755f8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $112.1 million in 2025-Q2 to $129.8 million in 2026-Q2. Management provided guidance for fiscal year 2026 GAAP total revenue in the range of $528.0 million to $531.0 million. The trajectory is delivering with consistent revenue growth and maintained guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$1.13 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.62B

$0.62B → $0.62B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.13	$620,765,460	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$1.10	$620,448,790	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$1.10	$620,448,790	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$1.10	$620,448,790	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$1.10	$620,448,790	6 / 6
2026-07-29	$1.10	$620,448,790	6 / 6
2026-07-30	$1.10	$620,448,790	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$1.07	$619,141,950	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.07	$619,141,950	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.07	$619,141,950	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-04	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$619,138,749	4 / 5
2026-08-08	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-11	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-12	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.09	$619,141,950	8 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$619,138,749	4 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$619,138,749	4 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$619,138,749	4 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$619,138,749	4 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$619,138,749	4 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$619,138,749	4 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$619,138,749	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$619,121,405	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$619,121,405	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$619,121,405	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$619,121,405	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$618,177,999	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$618,178,143	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$618,181,818	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$618,181,674	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$618,181,674	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$618,181,674	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$618,178,874	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	2	0
2026-06-01	8	2	0
2026-07-01	7	1	0
2026-08-01	7	1	0
2026-09-01	7	1	1
2026-10-01	6	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA target near $97.9M in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth to about $530.9M in fiscal 2026Revenue: $129.844M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alkami Technology, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented software business with an execution-dependent thesis, not a proven durable compounder yet. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and digital banking users are growing, while recent performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Alkami Technology, Inc.

The valuation is stretched, at a 1.42 premium versus peers, and the evidence points to a durable premium already reflected in expectations. The expectations gap is 0.19, but the snapshot does not explain its scale or meaning, so the degree of optimism embedded in expectations is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals remain on track, supported by recent growth and maintained guidance. Digital banking users are also increasing, though client and user growth is rated mixed; a recent earnings miss and a run of misses among peers add risk around execution.

What Alkami Technology, Inc. hinges on

The next call is an important near-term test: a guidance cut would weaken the execution case. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on continued growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, clients, and users; rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from major software peers could provide a favorable sector backdrop.