Reading WYNN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WYNN free→Reading WYNN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WYNN free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $105.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $106 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 19× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $123 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $127–$146. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.23 → $1.05 (-14.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 9 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 95% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 37.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$324.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,862.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 10.3 points (from 41.5 to 51.8).
As of June 16, 2026, valuation rose. The sector backdrop fell. Risk remained moderate, while management was noted as volatile. Earnings quality was described as robust.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health and care for shareholders. A cut can mean trouble.
Confirms:There is news that the quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share will continue.
Disproves:There is news of a dividend cut or suspension.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WYNN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Wynn Resorts, Limited (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under Items 2.02 and 7.01 of this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed inc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$127.00 – $146.00 (median $137.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-14
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
RSI Rush Street Interactive, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
29 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to return capital to shareholders through a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share.
Emphasize improving operational profitability across all markets.
Continue construction and development of the Wynn Al Marjan Island project, expected to open in 2027.
Why it matters: Higher operational profit helps Wynn's finances. It also builds trust with investors.
Confirms:Operational profit is clearly better than in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operational profit stays the same or drops compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDAR growth in Las Vegas shows good operations and a strong market.
Confirms:Q2 EBITDAR from Las Vegas operations increases year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 EBITDAR from Las Vegas operations is down compared to last year.
Why it matters: Growth in Macau is crucial for overall performance. It shows demand recovery in a key market.
Confirms:Q2 revenue from Wynn Macau increases year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Q2 revenue from Wynn Macau declines year over year or stays flat.
Other Events. On May 7, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on May 29, 2026 to stockholders of record as of May 18, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Wynn Resorts, Limited (the "Company) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under Items 2.02 and 7.01 of this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, no…
Other Events. On February 12, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share, payable on March 4, 2026 to stockholders of record as of February 23, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 7, 2026, Julie Cameron-Doe notified Wynn Resorts, Limited (the “Company”) of her decision to retire from her role as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective as of March 31, 2026, and to retire from the Company as an officer of the Company, effective as of June 1, 2026. In connection with her retirement, Ms. Cameron-Doe will be…