Reading BALY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BALY free→Reading BALY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BALY free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BALY trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 BALY trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.04x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.65 → $-0.92 (-41.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -13.3% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$242.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$639.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,164.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will indicate consumer spending trends. Strong sales could support Bally's recovery.
Confirms:Retail sales report shows an increase greater than 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales report shows a decrease greater than -0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BALY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 5, 2026, Bally’s Intralot S.A. (“Bally’s Intralot”), a Greek publicly listed company in which Bally's Corporation (the "Company") (through its subsidiaries) holds an investment representing approximately 59.44% (as of March 31, 2026) of the outstanding shares, and Evoke PLC, a company incorporated under the laws of Gibraltar and listed on the London Stock Exchange (“Evoke”), issued a joint announcement that their respective Boards of Directo…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BALY Bally's Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | fair | moderate |
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income improved to $91.6M in 2026-Q1 from a loss of $182.9M in 2025-Q4, indicating significant progress in cost management and strategic initiatives. The trajectory is delivering positive results.
“Operating income improved to $91.6M.”
“Operating income was a loss of $182.9M.”
“Operating income was $0.989M.”
Drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased to $755.7M in 2026-Q1 from $510.7M in 2025-Q4, showing strong growth momentum. The trajectory indicates effective execution of strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operations was negative $145.0M in 2026-Q1, down from $37.8M in 2025-Q4, indicating challenges in maintaining positive cash flow. The trajectory shows a need for improved cash management strategies.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choices can change how much people spend and interest rates. This affects Bally's business.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates. This shows the economy is weak.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Bally's can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows continued revenue decline year over year.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and will not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Exchange Act, except as otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and will not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, including for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Exchange Act, except as otherwise expressly stated in such filing.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Bally’s Corporation (“Bally’s” or the “Company”), as borrower, and certain of its subsidiaries, as guarantors, entered into a term loan credit agreement with Ares Agent Services, L.P., as administrative agent and collateral agent, Ares Management LLC, Platinum Birch Ltd. and Angelo, Gordon & Co., L.P., as lead arrangers and bookrunners, and certain financial institutions party thereto as lenders providing f…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
“Revenue increased to $755.7M.”
“Revenue was $510.7M.”
“Revenue was $663.7M.”
“Cash from operations was negative $145.0M.”
“Cash from operations was $37.8M.”
“Cash from operations was $36.5M.”