Reading MCRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCRI free→Reading MCRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MCRI free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, MCRI is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 26% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $128.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $129 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 18× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $102 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 26% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.62x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.53 → $1.68 (+9.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$200.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,747.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in revenue growth, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MCRI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, the Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | moderate |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Continue to achieve strong operating income through efficient operations and cost management.
Focus on enhancing net income through improved profitability and cost control.
Why it matters: The declaration shows ongoing returns to shareholders. This reflects good financial health.
Confirms:Cash dividend of $0.30 per share declared and paid on June 15, 2026.
Disproves:No cash dividend declared for June 15, 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on these topics can show chances for growth and future plans. Investors want to know about expansion.
Confirms one read:Management shares news about new capital investments or M&A plans that could boost growth.
Confirms the other:Management says there are delays or stops in planned investments or M&A reviews.
Why it matters: A drop in EBITDA margin may mean higher costs or problems. This affects profits.
Confirms:EBITDA margin is under 35%.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 35%.
Why it matters: Gaining market share shows strong competition. It can help future revenue growth.
Confirms:Management says market share is up at Atlantis and Monarch Black Hawk.
Disproves:Management says market share is flat or down at either property.
Why it matters: The dividend announcement may affect how investors feel and how the stock performs.
Confirms one read:Stock price goes up after the dividend announcement on June 15, 2026.
Confirms the other:Stock price goes down after the dividend announcement on June 15, 2026.
Why it matters: This shows strong financial management. It helps build investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income growth reported above 40% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported below 40% year over year.
Why it matters: A better operating income margin shows good cost management. It helps overall profits.
Confirms:Operating income margin is better than in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income margin is worse than in Q1 2026.
Other Events. On April 21, 2026, the Company announced a cash dividend of $0.30 per share of its outstanding common stock, payable on June 15, 2026, to stockholders of record on June 1, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events. On February 4, 2026, the Company announced a cash dividend of $0.30 per share of its outstanding common stock, payable on March 16, 2026, to stockholders of record on March 2, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2025, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.