Reading ACEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACEL free→Reading ACEL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ACEL free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGamblingSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 ACEL trades at 12× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.21 (-12.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$249.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,602.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects consumer spending. Strong growth could boost Accel's prospects.
Confirms:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ACEL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , Accel Entertainment, Inc. ( the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached and furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ACEL Accel Entertainment, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | elevated |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | fair | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Accel aims to begin generating revenue from the Chicago VGT market by late 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Accel plans to enter the Chicago VGT market by late 2026. No financial impact yet as the market entry is projected for future quarters. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“The Company expects a Chicago VGT market could begin generating revenue for Accel as early as the third or fourth quarter of 2026.”
Accel is focusing on the continued expansion of the Louisiana market.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Accel is focusing on expanding its presence in the Louisiana market. Revenue grew from $302.2M in 2024-Q3 to $351.6M in 2026-Q1, indicating growth potential. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“Looking ahead, we see meaningful opportunities from the ongoing ramp of Fairmount Park, the continued expansion of the Louisiana market.”
Accel aims to achieve record revenue of $1.3 billion for the full year 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Accel aims for $1.3B in revenue for 2026. Revenue grew from $317.5M in 2024-Q4 to $351.6M in 2026-Q1, showing positive trajectory. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes affect consumer spending. A rate hike could hurt Accel's business.
Confirms:FOMC raises rates by more than 25 basis points.
Disproves:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: This report shows retail sales trends. Strong sales could help Accel's outlook.
Confirms:Retail sales increase more than 0.5% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 3, 2026 , Accel Entertainment, Inc. ( the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached and furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 2, 2026, Accel Entertainment, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that: • Andy Rubenstein, the Company’s current Chief Executive Officer and President, has been appointed as Chairman of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), effective immediately; • Mark Phelan, age 57, currently the Company’s President – US Gaming, (i) has been app…
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. The Audit Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Accel Entertainment, Inc. (the “Company”) recently completed a competitive selection process, inclusive of the Company’s current independent registered public accounting firm, KPMG LLP (“KPMG”), to determine the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. Following the review and evaluation of the proposals of the participa…
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. The Company announces material information to the public through a variety of means, including filings with the Secu…
“For the full year, we generated record revenue of $1.3 billion.”