Reading CHDN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHDN free→Reading CHDN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHDN free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGamblingSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The company is not currently profitable, so the valuation relies on sales- and cash-based methods. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $89.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 CHDN trades at 15× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $97 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.42 → $3.42 (+0.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 66.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$150.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$292.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,936.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show that CDI's strategic initiatives are working.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at over $698 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $698 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHDN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. A copy of the news release issued by Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company") on April 22, 2026 announcing the results of operations and financial condition for the three months ended March 31, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities E…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2021-Q2, 2021-Q3, 2022-Q1, 2022-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHDN Churchill Downs Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Plan to invest $180-$200 million in Rockingham Grand Casino with a mid-2027 opening.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives.
Focus on enhancing operating income through efficiency improvements.
Focus on increasing cash flow from operating activities to support growth.
Why it matters: Changes in tax laws could help cash flow. This affects how money is spent and invested.
Confirms:A report shows a big drop in cash taxes. This is due to new tax rules.
Disproves:No noticeable change in cash taxes despite new tax provisions.
Why it matters: A drop in net income could signal operational issues or increased costs.
Confirms:Net income for Q2 2026 reported above $80 million.
Disproves:Net income for Q2 2026 reported below $80 million.
Why it matters: The casino's opening is a key part of CDI's growth strategy. It could boost revenue significantly.
Confirms:The Rockingham Grand Casino opens on schedule in mid-2027.
Disproves:The opening is delayed beyond mid-2027.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. A copy of the news release issued by Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company") on February 25, 2026 announcing the results of operations and financial condition for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. A copy of the news release issued by Churchill Downs Incorporated (the "Company") on October 22, 2025 announcing the results of operations and financial condition for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information provided pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of t…