Reading CZR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CZR free→Reading CZR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CZR free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CZR trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests a potential value-trap situation due to weak financials. Watch for guidance changes and sector trends for future signals. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $30 CZR trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $51 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $24–$36. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.07x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.13 (-27.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 6 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 41% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.6% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$122.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$431.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,243.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Litigation outcomes can affect financial stability. They can also impact future growth. This is a risk to watch.
Confirms:If the lawsuit ends well, it can reduce financial risk.
Disproves:If the ruling is bad, it can increase financial risk from the lawsuit.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CZR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On May 27, 2026, Caesars Entertainment, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), Fertitta Gaming Holdco, LLC, a Texas limited liability company (“ Parent ”), Empire Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and direct wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”), Landry’s Fertitta, LLC, a Texas limited liability company (“ Parent Guarantor ”) solely for the purposes of Section 9.14 therein, and Hospitality Headquarters,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$24.00 – $36.00 (median $31.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CZR Caesars Entertainment | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Caesars aims to drive revenue growth across its segments, particularly in Caesars Digital.
Caesars is committed to enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Caesars aims to enhance cash flow from operations to support debt reduction and strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Caesars. A drop below 5% signals trouble in their growth strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: New offers could change the current deal with Fertitta.
Confirms one read:A new acquisition offer comes before the go-shop period ends on July 11, 2026.
Confirms the other:No alternative proposals emerge by the end of the go-shop period.
Why it matters: Higher revenue shows the company is stable and in demand.
Confirms:Q2 2026 earnings report shows revenue growth compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 2026 earnings report shows revenue decline compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows better financial health. This can support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 10% compared to the previous quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or stays flat compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Cash from operations is vital for health. A decline signals ongoing cash flow challenges.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported lower than $204M.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported higher than $204M.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows how well a company is running. If growth is below 2%, it means cost management is not improving much.
Confirms:Operating income growth is below 2% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is above 2% compared to last year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the press release of the Registrant, dated April 28, 2026 , reporting the Registrant’s financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise incorpor…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the press release of the Registrant, dated February 17, 2026 , reporting the Registrant’s financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or oth…