Reading RRR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RRR free→Reading RRR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RRR free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, RRR trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $61 RRR trades at 28× p/e — 1.8× the 15× p/e peer median, and above its own 18× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $34 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $59–$72. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 81% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.76x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.43 (+7.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 20.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$335.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,204.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports investments and growth. Weak cash flow raises concerns.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations remains above $50 million for the quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations drops below $30 million for the quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RRR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 12, 2026, Red Rock Resorts, Inc. and Station Casinos LLC (together, the “Company”) announced that Jeffrey T. Welch is retiring and will step down from his role as Chief Legal Officer of the Company effective September 8, 2026. After September 8, 2026, Mr. Welch will continue to be employed by the Company in a non-officer position and will provide transition and o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$59.00 – $72.00 (median $70.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RRR Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining robust cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Continue efforts to increase revenue across operations, particularly in Las Vegas.
Aim to improve operating income through cost management and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: If operating income keeps falling, it shows efficiency problems. This may hurt profits and cash flow.
Confirms:Operating income was below $143.7M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income improves to above $143.7M in Q2.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would mean worse operations and cash flow problems.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA falls more than 2% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA stays flat or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key priority. Strong growth signals good demand and cash flow.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal a slowdown in revenue growth. This could raise concerns about the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 1.5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 1.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower cash flow could hurt the company's ability to pay dividends and handle debt.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported below $130 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains above $130 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Negative growth would show a big drop in consumer spending in Las Vegas.
Confirms:Las Vegas operations revenue declines year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Las Vegas operations revenue grows year over year in Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.