Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-09
$55.02-1.96%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Net revenue growth at or above 1.9% YoY: rev -3.0% vs 1.9%.
Red Rock Resorts grows revenue steadily, with Q1 2026 revenue up 1.9% to $507.3 million. Profit margins remain stable, with operating income around $143.7 million. The company has a clear focus on revenue growth and cost management. Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $3.19, supporting durable profitability.
Revenue growth is modest and could stall below 2%. Operating income improvements are marginal, risking thinner profit margins. The stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 30.2, well above peers at 17.3, which may not be justified if growth slows.
The market prices the stock about 52% above our fair value near $43, with analysts expecting about 4% revenue growth. Our fair value is 38% below the Street median, indicating the market may be overly optimistic on growth and profitability.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $3.19 for FY 2026
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $143 million next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable company with a focus on maintaining cash flow and dividends. The current thesis state shows mixed results in revenue growth and cash flow, indicating a cautious outlook.
The market seems to have a neutral view on RRR's valuation, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a modest expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic or pessimistic about future performance.
Management has emphasized maintaining strong cash flow, which has been consistent, but revenue growth is stagnant. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the company operates in a volatile industry.
The thesis hinges on whether RRR can sustain its cash flow and dividends while navigating sector headwinds. Key factors include guidance changes, inflation trends, and performance from sector peers.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on RRR. However, profits are sliding, which threatens the sustainability of operating income.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operating income through cost management and operational efficiencies to strengthen profitability.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was $143.6M in 2025-Q4, $143.7M in 2026-Q1, and declined to $136.0M in 2026-Q2, indicating a slight downward trend. The trajectory is stagnant to slightly declining, showing limited progress on enhancing operating income despite management focus.
“Operating income was $136.0 million for the second quarter of 2026.”
“Operating income was $143.7 million for the first quarter of 2026.”
“Operating income was $143.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2025.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 1.9% next year
Drive revenue growth across core Las Vegas operations and other segments to enhance overall business performance.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net revenues were $511.8M in 2025-Q4, $507.3M in 2026-Q1, and $510.3M in 2026-Q2, showing a relatively stable revenue base with slight fluctuations. The trajectory is stagnant to slightly declining, indicating limited progress on growth despite management focus.
“Net revenues were $510.3 million for the second quarter of 2026.”
“Net revenues were $507.3 million for the first quarter of 2026.”
“Net revenues were $511.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2025.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, RRR's performance will depend on its ability to manage cash flow and respond to market conditions. Not investment advice.