Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$49.61-1.63%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Red Rock Resorts, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.91 → 2.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	525.88M
EPS	—	0.666
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.02B
EPS	—	2.697
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.15B
EPS	—	2.92

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS at or above $3.19 for FY 2026	Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $3.19, supporting durable profitability.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $3.19 for FY 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$3.19. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15898a4a-2dc5-4667-9f03-4047768453fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income near $143.7 million	Profit margins remain stable, with operating income around $143.7 million.	Intact	Operating income falls below $143 million next year	Operating income: $135.996M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$143 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026135,996,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 15898a4a-2dc5-4667-9f03-4047768453fb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as an operating focus in 3 supplied quarters. Operating income was $168.0 million in 2025-Q2 and $136.0 million in 2026-Q2. The latest comparable result declined, indicating limited progress on this focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net revenue growth at or above 1.9% YoY	A primary condition in Red Rock Resorts, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.9% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 1.9% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 supplied quarters through recurring emphasis on reported net revenues. Revenue was $497.9 million in 2025-Q1 and $507.3 million in 2026-Q1, then $510.3 million in 2026-Q2, compared with $526.3 million in 2025-Q2. The latest year-over-year comparison was lower, so progress is mixed rather than consistent. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.92

$2.45 → $2.92 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.15B

$2.14B → $2.15B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.45	$2,140,337,170	8 / 16
2026-07-25	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-07-26	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-07-27	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-07-28	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-07-29	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-07-30	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-07-31	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-08-01	$2.98	$2,140,081,341	6 / 12
2026-08-02	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-08-03	$2.98	$2,140,081,341	6 / 12
2026-08-04	$2.98	$2,140,081,341	6 / 12
2026-08-05	$2.45	$2,140,081,250	8 / 16
2026-08-06	$2.67	$2,145,254,720	7 / 16
2026-08-08	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-09	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-10	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-12	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-13	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-14	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-15	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-16	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-17	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-18	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-19	$2.96	$2,146,261,319	6 / 12
2026-08-20	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	7 / 12
2026-08-21	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-22	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-23	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-24	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-25	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-26	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-27	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-28	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-29	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-30	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-08-31	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-09-01	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-09-02	$2.95	$2,146,818,061	8 / 12
2026-09-03	$2.98	$2,147,240,529	8 / 13
2026-09-04	$2.98	$2,147,240,529	8 / 13
2026-09-05	$2.98	$2,147,240,529	8 / 13
2026-09-06	$2.98	$2,147,240,529	8 / 13
2026-09-07	$2.98	$2,147,240,529	8 / 13
2026-09-08	$2.98	$2,147,240,529	8 / 13
2026-09-09	$2.98	$2,147,250,199	8 / 13
2026-09-10	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-11	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-12	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-13	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-14	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-15	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-16	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-17	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-18	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-19	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-20	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-21	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-22	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-23	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-24	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-25	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-26	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-27	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-28	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-29	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-09-30	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-10-01	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-10-02	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-10-03	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-10-04	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-10-05	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-10-06	$2.91	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-10-07	$2.92	$2,147,414,077	8 / 13
2026-10-08	$2.92	$2,147,414,077	9 / 13
2026-10-09	$2.92	$2,147,414,077	9 / 13
2026-10-10	$2.92	$2,147,414,077	9 / 13
2026-10-11	$2.92	$2,147,414,077	9 / 13
2026-10-12	$2.92	$2,147,414,077	9 / 13
2026-10-13	$2.92	$2,147,414,077	9 / 13
2026-10-14	$2.92	$2,147,616,410	9 / 13
2026-10-15	$2.92	$2,147,616,410	9 / 13
2026-10-16	$2.92	$2,147,616,410	9 / 13
2026-10-17	$2.92	$2,147,616,410	9 / 13
2026-10-18	$2.92	$2,147,616,410	9 / 13
2026-10-19	$2.92	$2,147,616,410	9 / 13
2026-10-20	$2.92	$2,148,458,753	9 / 13
2026-10-21	$2.92	$2,148,342,471	9 / 13
2026-10-22	$2.92	$2,148,342,471	9 / 13
2026-10-23	$2.92	$2,148,342,471	9 / 13
2026-10-24	$2.92	$2,148,103,582	9 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	13	3
2026-06-01	14	3
2026-07-01	15	3
2026-08-01	15	2
2026-09-01	16	3
2026-10-01	16	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Jul 14

$75.00 → $78.00+4.0%

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jul 15

$73.00 → $65.00-11.0%

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Aug 5

$73.00 → $74.00+1.4%

$0$42.90$85.80

2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS at or above $3.19 for FY 2026Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share
Operating income near $143.7 millionOperating income: $135.996M
Net revenue growth at or above 1.9% YoYPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Red Rock Resorts, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

RRR is a company with a currently intact multi-year view, rather than a clear turnaround or a thesis supported by consistently improving results. Company momentum improved recently, and recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, while management execution is mixed.

What's priced into Red Rock Resorts, Inc.

Valuation is described as a 1.43 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is small at 0.01 and the model has low confidence. The evidence tags expectations as justified and finds no signs of valuation fragility, so it does not point to a clear mismatch between expectations and the business setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, reported results provide mixed evidence: second-quarter revenue was lower year over year, and operating income also declined. The company has repeatedly declared a quarterly dividend at the stated level, but revenue growth and operating income remain management priorities with mixed progress. Earnings-miss risk is described as low, though recent surprises have been erratic and trending down.

What Red Rock Resorts, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support. Over the multi-year view, the key test is whether RRR can turn its revenue and operating-income focus into more consistent progress.