Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-09
$84.13-1.98%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS reaches about $6.88 in FY26: FY26 EPS guidance $3.45 vs $6.88 target.
Churchill Downs grows revenue from $561M in 2023-Q4 to $663M in 2026-Q1. Profit rose from $106M to $143M in the same period. The company has a cheap valuation with a PE of 13.6 and free cash flow yield near 9%. Analysts expect about 4% revenue growth next year.
Revenue growth is mixed and slowing. Guidance is soft, signaling risks ahead. The recent 15% share price drop shows investor concern about future earnings.
The price is about 42% below our fair value near $149. The market expects 4% revenue growth, which aligns with consensus. Our view sees some risk given the soft guidance and recent selloff.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $250M or falls below $150M in FY26
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $6.5 for FY26
Breaks if: operating income falls below $130M in Q1 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth and operational efficiency. The current thesis state is mixed, as recent performance has been strong, but there are emerging risks that could impact future results.
The market currently prices CHDN as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. This suggests that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance, which may provide some cushion against potential negative news.
Management has shown robust earnings quality and stable leadership, with recent financial performance indicating strong revenue growth. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, as the industry has seen peers struggle recently.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance and manage inflation impacts. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like LVS, DKNG, and MGM could influence CHDN's trajectory in the Consumer Discretionary space.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook. This miss suggests challenges in meeting growth expectations, which could affect future performance.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operating income and Adjusted EBITDA via operational efficiencies and segment growth.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income increased from $327 million in 2025-Q2 to $357 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting improved efficiencies and segment growth. Adjusted EBITDA also showed growth, indicating management is delivering on enhancing operating income through operational improvements.
“Operating income $357 million, up from $327 million prior year quarter.”
“Operating income $143 million, up from $135 million prior year quarter.”
“Operating income $123.1 million, up from $126.8 million prior year quarter.”
“Adjusted EBITDA $262.3 million, up 11% year-over-year.”
Breaks if: total revenue falls below $2.9B in FY26
Drive revenue growth via expansion of live racing, wagering services, and gaming properties.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue increased from $643 million in 2025-Q1 to an all-time record $980 million in 2026-Q2, a 52% nominal increase over 6 quarters. Growth was driven by strong performance in live racing, wagering services, and gaming segments, including record Derby Week results. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth.
“All-time record net revenue of $980 million, up $46 million or 5%.”
“Record net revenue of $663 million, up $20 million or 3%.”
“Record net revenue $665.9 million, up $41.7 million or 7%.”
“Record third quarter net revenue of $683.0 million, up $54.5 million or 9%.”
Overall, CHDN's fundamentals are solid, but caution is warranted due to potential near-term risks. Not investment advice.