Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$83.73-0.85%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Churchill Downs Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.43 → 7.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	678.65M
EPS	—	1.049
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.02B
EPS	—	6.832
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.11B
EPS	—	7.302

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
CAPEX remains within $180M to $220M in FY26	A supporting condition in Churchill Downs Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $180M to $220M CAPEX FY26.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $250M or falls below $150M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $58M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $180M to $220M CAPEX FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202658,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS reaches about $6.88 in FY26	A primary condition in Churchill Downs Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.88 EPS FY26.	Broken	EPS guidance falls below $6.5 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $3.42 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.88 EPS FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20263.42 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to at least $143M in Q1 2026	A primary condition in Churchill Downs Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $143M operating income Q1 2026.	Intact	operating income falls below $130M in Q1 2026	Operating income: $357M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $143M operating income Q1 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026357,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 11a1a029-e887-452e-83f2-9c521c2e5827. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating income rose significantly from $143 million in 2026-Q1 to $357 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting improved segment Adjusted EBITDA and operational efficiencies. The trajectory indicates delivering on the goal to enhance operating income through efficiency. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $3.03B in FY26	A primary condition in Churchill Downs Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.03B total revenue FY26.	Broken	total revenue falls below $2.9B in FY26	Revenue: $980M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.03B total revenue FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026980,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 11a1a029-e887-452e-83f2-9c521c2e5827. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Net revenue increased from $663 million in 2026-Q1 to a record $980 million in 2026-Q2, a 5% year-over-year growth. Segment revenue growth was driven by record Derby Week and expansion in Kentucky and Virginia HRM venues. The trajectory shows consistent delivery on revenue growth through strategic initiatives. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.30

$7.28 → $7.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.11B

$3.13B → $3.11B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.28	$3,129,885,750	8 / 11
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$3,129,858,480	4 / 8
2026-07-26	$7.28	$3,133,340,300	8 / 11
2026-07-27	$7.28	$3,133,340,300	8 / 11
2026-07-28	$7.28	$3,133,340,300	8 / 11
2026-07-29	$7.28	$3,133,340,300	8 / 11
2026-07-30	$7.28	$3,131,067,570	8 / 11
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$3,132,918,432	4 / 8
2026-08-01	$7.28	$3,131,067,570	8 / 11
2026-08-02	$7.68	$3,127,792,030	8 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-08	$7.38	$3,118,184,850	8 / 11
2026-08-09	$7.38	$3,118,184,850	8 / 11
2026-08-10	$7.38	$3,118,184,850	8 / 11
2026-08-11	$7.38	$3,118,184,850	8 / 11
2026-08-12	$7.38	$3,118,184,850	8 / 11
2026-08-13	$7.38	$3,118,184,850	8 / 11
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$3,126,458,614	4 / 8
2026-08-20	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-21	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-22	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-23	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-24	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-25	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-26	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-27	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-28	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-29	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-30	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-08-31	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-09-01	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-09-02	$7.38	$3,115,664,258	5 / 8
2026-09-03	$7.43	$3,118,442,237	5 / 8
2026-09-04	$7.43	$3,118,442,237	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$7.43	$3,118,442,237	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$7.43	$3,118,442,237	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$7.43	$3,118,442,237	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$7.43	$3,118,442,237	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$7.43	$3,118,442,237	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$7.43	$3,118,457,378	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$7.43	$3,116,374,045	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$7.41	$3,115,947,212	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$7.41	$3,115,947,212	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$7.41	$3,115,947,212	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$7.41	$3,115,947,212	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$7.41	$3,115,947,212	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$7.41	$3,115,947,212	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$7.35	$3,113,613,878	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$7.35	$3,113,613,878	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$7.32	$3,113,363,878	6 / 8
2026-10-17	$7.32	$3,113,363,878	6 / 8
2026-10-18	$7.32	$3,113,363,878	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$7.32	$3,113,363,878	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$7.32	$3,113,363,878	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$7.32	$3,113,310,845	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$7.30	$3,110,376,218	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$7.30	$3,111,792,885	5 / 9
2026-10-24	$7.30	$3,111,792,885	5 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	0	0
2026-06-01	12	0	0
2026-07-01	12	0	0
2026-08-01	12	0	0
2026-09-01	12	0	0
2026-10-01	12	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 13

$131.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$72.05$144.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

CAPEX remains within $180M to $220M in FY26Capital expenditures: $58M
EPS reaches about $6.88 in FY26Published status: Broken
Operating income improves to at least $143M in Q1 2026Operating income: $357M
Revenue grows to at least $3.03B in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Churchill Downs Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an established business with strong recent financial performance and robust earnings quality, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, and the latest signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though risk remains elevated.

What's priced into Churchill Downs Inc.

The evidence describes CHDN as cheap versus peers, with a low fragility tier and a justified priced-in tag. The expectations gap is small, so the evidence points to limited difference between current expectations and the model’s view; confidence in that assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and operating income have shown strength: second-quarter revenue reached a record, while management’s revenue-growth and efficiency priorities remain on track. However, a recent earnings miss and a history of consecutive misses make guidance and execution key near-term risks.

What Churchill Downs Inc. hinges on

The Rockingham Grand Casino project remains a multi-year execution factor, with management’s investment priority rated mixed and an opening planned for mid-2027. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers could affect the sector backdrop for CHDN.