Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.00+0.27%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Accel Entertainment, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	365.46M
EPS	—	0.199
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.44B
EPS	—	0.702
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.51B
EPS	—	0.846

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Generate revenue from Chicago VGT market by late 2026	The company is expanding into the Chicago VGT market, which should add new revenue streams.	Intact	No revenue from Chicago VGT market by Q4 2026	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has emphasized Chicago VGT market expansion since 2025-Q4, expecting revenue generation starting Q3 or Q4 2026. The 2026-Q2 report confirms readiness to move quickly upon licensing. The trajectory is delivering as regulatory approvals progress and infrastructure is in place. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Leadership stability and execution on growth plans	A supporting condition in Accel Entertainment, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership disruptions; successful execution of growth initiatives.	Under Pressure	Significant leadership issues or failure to execute growth plans	Qualitative: 1 exec departure, 1 CEO sale, 1 earnings miss CEO sold stock, CCO resigned, Q2 earnings missed, while Chicago expansion news remains positive. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain profit margins near current levels	Profit margins remain stable with a low valuation compared to peers.	Broken	Profit margins or EPS decline more than 10% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue near $1.3 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Accel Entertainment, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.3 billion total revenue.	Broken	total revenue falls below $1.2 billion in FY26	Revenue: $368.125M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026368,125,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f1fb2d0e-9649-4baa-83a9-0bdc0479e1a0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $323.9M in 2025-Q1 to $368.1M in 2026-Q2 (+13.6%), with full year 2025 revenue at $659.8M and 2026 guidance at $719.7M. Management has consistently highlighted record revenue achievements and growth across quarters. The trajectory is delivering with steady revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$1.51B

Unavailable → $1.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,501,797,571	2 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$1,505,005,286	2 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$1,506,776,714	2 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$1,506,776,714	2 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$1,506,776,714	2 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$1,506,776,714	2 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	1
2026-06-01	5	1
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	5	2
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Generate revenue from Chicago VGT market by late 2026Qualitative condition
Leadership stability and execution on growth plansPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain profit margins near current levelsPublished status: Broken
Achieve revenue near $1.3 billion in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Accel Entertainment, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ACEL is a growth-oriented gaming business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. Its multi-year view is intact, though the CEO transition and a recent earnings miss add uncertainty.

What's priced into Accel Entertainment, Inc.

The valuation is tagged as justified, with a cheap-versus-peers signal but a separate peer comparison showing a premium, so the evidence is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be below the model’s view; confidence in that estimate is medium, and no valuation fragility flags are present.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results could face pressure: the company has a run of earnings misses, and the snapshot identifies a meaningful negative if guidance is cut on the next call. Over the multi-year view, revenue has grown, 2026 guidance is above 2025 revenue, and Louisiana expansion is progressing; Chicago is prepared for expansion once licensing allows it.

What Accel Entertainment, Inc. hinges on

A key swing factor is whether ACEL maintains guidance and turns its readiness in Chicago into revenue as approvals progress. Louisiana growth and acquisitions are supportive, while results from sector bellwethers could either sustain or weaken the broader industry tailwind.