Reading FLL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FLL free→Reading FLL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FLL free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The valuation is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.04 FLL trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $2.74 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.34x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.18 → $-0.19 (-8.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$252.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$562.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,657.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
The valuation changed, moving from fair to full. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market environment.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings show a profit or a smaller loss compared to the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FLL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 7, 2026, Full House Resorts, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained on, or that may be accessed through, any websites contained in our press release is not incorporated by reference i…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FLL Full House Resorts Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | full | high |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving Colorado operations to significantly contribute to income in 2026 and beyond.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects Colorado operations to significantly contribute to income in 2026 and beyond. However, the financials show a net income of -$8.15M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress so far.
“We expect our Colorado operations to contribute significantly to our income in 2026 and beyond.”
Efforts are underway to enable Chamonix to reach expected levels of profitability in the coming quarters and years.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. Management aims for Chamonix to achieve profitability in future quarters. Despite this, the company reported a net income of -$8.15M in 2026-Q1, showing limited progress towards this goal.
“We believe these efforts will benefit Chamonix in the coming quarters and years, allowing it to reach levels of profitability.”
Extended the maturity date of the Credit Agreement from January 1, 2027, to August 15, 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company extended its credit agreement maturity to August 15, 2027. This strategic move provides more time for financial maneuvering, but the net income remains negative at -$8.15M in 2026-Q1, indicating financial challenges persist.
“Amended its Credit Agreement to extend the maturity date from January 1, 2027, to August 15, 2027.”
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales can boost investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Retail sales are higher than expected. This shows stronger consumer spending.
Confirms the other:Retail sales are lower than expected. This suggests weak consumer demand.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the sector could signal a recovery for Full House Resorts. This is key for its future.
Confirms:Consumer spending is growing again. It was negative before.
Disproves:Revenue growth is still negative, showing ongoing weakness in the sector.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained on, or that may be accessed through, any websites contained in our press release is not incorporated by reference into, and is…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Amendment of Credit Agreement On March 3, 2026, Full House Resorts, Inc. (the “Company”), amended its Credit Agreement with Capital One, National Association, dated as of March 31, 2021 (as amended through the date hereof, the “Credit Agreement”) pursuant to a Fourth Amendment to Credit Agreement which extended the maturity date of the Credit Agreement from January 1, 2027 to August 15, 2027. Except as set forth in the Fourth Amendment to Credit Ag…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 6, 2025, Full House Resorts, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained on, or that may be accessed through, any websites contained in our press release is not incorporated by…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 7, 2025, Full House Resorts, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained therein is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained on, or that may be accessed through, any websites contained in our press release is not incorporated by refere…