Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-23

$112.68-0.72%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	143.1M
EPS	—	1.68
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	570.13M
EPS	—	6.837
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	581.18M
EPS	—	7.066

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend remains at $0.30 per share	The company pays steady dividends of $0.30 per share.	Intact	Dividend falls below $0.30 per share	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income stays above $27.6M quarterly	Net income improved from $19.9M to $27.6M.	Intact	Net income falls below $19.9M quarterly	Net income: $32.523M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $27.6M net income quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202632,523,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b1ea8ffa-782d-4ce8-aa1c-0fe079f52a59. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income stays strong near $35.5M quarterly	A primary condition in Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $35.5M operating income quarterly.	Broken	Operating income falls below $25.6M quarterly	Operating income: $21.134M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $35.5M operating income quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 202621,134,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 3.4% next year	A primary condition in Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3.4% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3.4% in FY26	Revenue growth: 4.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.4% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20264.150781 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b1ea8ffa-782d-4ce8-aa1c-0fe079f52a59. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.58B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$581,858,330	2 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	4
2026-06-01	2	4
2026-07-01	2	5
2026-08-01	2	5
2026-09-01	1	5
2026-10-01	1	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend remains at $0.30 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
Net income stays above $27.6M quarterlyNet income: $32.523M
Operating income stays strong near $35.5M quarterlyPublished status: Broken
Revenue grows at least 3.4% next yearRevenue growth: 4.15%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MCRI is a growth-oriented casino business with recent strong financial performance and robust earnings quality. Its long-term thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though management execution is rated neutral and the sector backdrop is neutral.

What's priced into Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as justified, with the model showing MCRI at a 1.2-times premium to peers. The expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting expectations are not far from the evidence-based view; no signs of fragile pricing were flagged.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the recent quarters, revenue and adjusted EBITDA have grown, and casino operating expense margin has improved, though progress on operating efficiency is mixed. Dividends and share repurchases have continued, while near-term miss risk is described as low; past deep misses and recent peer misses remain cautions.

What Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on sustained revenue and EBITDA growth and continued operating efficiency. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as LVS, DKNG, and WYNN could signal whether the sector tailwind strengthens or fades.