Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-10-15

$75.60-1.78%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Wynn Resorts’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-4.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.00 → 4.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share	It pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.25 quarterly	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Wynn Resorts consistently declared and paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share from 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q2. This steady dividend payment aligns with management's stated capital allocation policy and shows delivering on this commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain or improve operating income above $280M quarterly	A primary condition in Wynn Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >=282.6 million USD.	Improving	Operating income falls below $268.6M quarterly	Operating income: $297.588M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=282.6 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026297,588,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 989d4711-800c-4aaf-a980-3c7ad2e98116. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 5% or higher	A primary condition in Wynn Resorts's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.8% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 4.8% next year	Revenue growth: 6.86% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=4.8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20266.855576 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 989d4711-800c-4aaf-a980-3c7ad2e98116. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advance Wynn Al Marjan Island development with quarterly contributions near $100M	The company is progressing on its Wynn Al Marjan Island project with $1.01B invested.	Under Pressure	Quarterly investment in Wynn Al Marjan Island falls below $50M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Wynn Resorts has steadily increased cash contributions to Wynn Al Marjan Island from $631.7M in 2024-Q4 to $1.06B in 2026-Q2. Management consistently targets opening in 2027, recently specifying September 2027. The trajectory shows delivering on construction progress and funding commitments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.80

$5.14 → $4.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.69B

$7.77B → $7.69B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.14	$7,772,534,290	9 / 15
2026-07-25	$5.02	$7,802,000,380	9 / 18
2026-07-26	$5.02	$7,802,000,380	9 / 18
2026-07-27	$5.09	$7,763,089,206	9 / 15
2026-07-28	$5.09	$7,763,089,206	9 / 15
2026-07-29	$5.02	$7,798,575,820	9 / 18
2026-07-30	$5.09	$7,759,463,182	9 / 15
2026-07-31	$5.02	$7,795,564,710	9 / 18
2026-08-01	$5.09	$7,759,463,182	9 / 15
2026-08-02	$5.09	$7,756,273,535	9 / 15
2026-08-03	$5.02	$7,795,564,710	9 / 18
2026-08-04	$5.02	$7,795,564,710	9 / 18
2026-08-05	$5.02	$7,797,009,160	9 / 18
2026-08-06	$5.02	$7,797,009,160	9 / 18
2026-08-08	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-09	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-10	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-12	$5.00	$7,779,644,360	9 / 18
2026-08-13	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-14	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-15	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-16	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-17	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-18	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-19	$5.09	$7,740,431,578	9 / 15
2026-08-20	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-21	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-22	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-23	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-24	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-25	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-26	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-27	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-28	$5.00	$7,730,101,781	9 / 15
2026-08-29	$5.00	$7,730,078,718	9 / 15
2026-08-30	$5.00	$7,730,078,718	9 / 15
2026-08-31	$5.00	$7,730,078,718	9 / 15
2026-09-01	$5.00	$7,730,078,718	9 / 15
2026-09-02	$5.00	$7,730,078,718	9 / 15
2026-09-03	$5.02	$7,735,548,259	9 / 15
2026-09-04	$5.02	$7,735,548,259	9 / 15
2026-09-05	$5.02	$7,735,548,259	9 / 15
2026-09-06	$5.02	$7,735,548,259	9 / 15
2026-09-07	$5.02	$7,735,548,259	9 / 15
2026-09-08	$5.02	$7,735,548,259	9 / 15
2026-09-09	$5.02	$7,735,548,259	9 / 15
2026-09-10	$5.02	$7,735,526,064	9 / 15
2026-09-11	$5.02	$7,735,526,064	9 / 15
2026-09-12	$5.02	$7,735,526,064	9 / 15
2026-09-13	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-14	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-15	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-16	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-17	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-18	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-19	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-20	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-21	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-22	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-23	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-24	$5.00	$7,728,598,233	9 / 15
2026-09-25	$5.00	$7,725,918,891	9 / 15
2026-09-26	$5.00	$7,725,918,891	9 / 15
2026-09-27	$5.00	$7,725,918,891	9 / 15
2026-09-28	$5.00	$7,725,918,891	9 / 15
2026-09-29	$5.00	$7,725,918,891	9 / 15
2026-09-30	$5.00	$7,725,918,891	9 / 15
2026-10-01	$5.00	$7,725,936,218	9 / 15
2026-10-02	$5.00	$7,725,936,218	9 / 15
2026-10-03	$5.00	$7,725,936,218	9 / 15
2026-10-04	$5.00	$7,725,936,218	9 / 15
2026-10-05	$5.00	$7,725,936,218	9 / 15
2026-10-06	$5.00	$7,725,936,218	9 / 15
2026-10-07	$5.00	$7,725,936,218	9 / 15
2026-10-08	$4.99	$7,723,679,434	9 / 15
2026-10-09	$4.97	$7,714,669,224	9 / 15
2026-10-10	$4.97	$7,714,669,224	9 / 15
2026-10-11	$4.94	$7,714,669,224	9 / 15
2026-10-12	$4.94	$7,714,669,224	9 / 15
2026-10-13	$4.94	$7,714,669,224	9 / 15
2026-10-14	$4.83	$7,697,278,427	9 / 15
2026-10-15	$4.80	$7,686,068,638	9 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	1
2026-06-01	19	1
2026-07-01	20	1
2026-08-01	20	1
2026-09-01	21	0
2026-10-01	21	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 13 · prior Jul 15

$120.00 → $102.00-15.0%

$0$66.00$132.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.25 per shareRequired source inputs unavailable
Maintain or improve operating income above $280M quarterlyOperating income: $297.588M
Sustain revenue growth near 5% or higherRevenue growth: 6.86%
Advance Wynn Al Marjan Island development with quarterly contributions near $100MPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Wynn Resorts outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a complex mix of a durable compounder and a speculative growth play. The current thesis state indicates that while recent financial performance is stable, the overall environment poses risks that could impact future results.

What's priced into Wynn Resorts

The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not fully accounting for the current turbulence. Valuation is aligned with peers, suggesting that expectations are moderately tempered.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is making progress on key priorities, such as the Wynn Al Marjan Island development and maintaining a consistent dividend. However, the company has a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though recent trends show a downward shift in earnings surprises.

What Wynn Resorts hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and navigate inflationary pressures. Additionally, the performance of sector peers like LVS, DKNG, and MGM will be crucial for sustaining momentum in the Consumer Discretionary sector.