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Weyerhaeuser (WY)
NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$24.80+0.63%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If WY cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Specialty
- Market cap
- $17.92B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-11
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$24.98consensus
Range $11.45 – $68.93
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$55.35consensus
Range $32.90 – $72.80
vs price: -55% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $25, WY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 80× p/e (4.9× the 16× p/e peer median, and 2.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~23% near-term growth vs our ~-8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $20 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
79.5x
peer 16.1x · own history 36.3x
Premium
4.9x peer
2.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
23%
our forecast -8%
Our fair value
$20.10
range $11.24 – $67.42
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premium
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
91st pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
30th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +84.4% / 30d, n=10for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.11 (+84.4% / 30d). 9 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 120.0% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$233.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,978.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk remained moderate. Earnings quality is fragile. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for Q2 Adjusted EBITDA to meet $425 million
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows the company is on track with its growth goals. It reflects operational stability amid market challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was $425 million or more.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $400 million.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WY yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for WY and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like EQIX, AMT, and DLR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting WY and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If WY cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like EQIX, AMT, and DLR start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping WY and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2028d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On May 14, 2026, the Weyerhaeuser Company ("Weyerhaeuser" or the "Company") amended and restated the Weyerhaeuser Company 2023 Deferred Compensation Plan. Pursuant to the plan, designated employee participants, including the company’s executive officers, may defer between 10 and 50 percent of base salary and between 10 and 100 percent of cash in…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.