Reading WY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If WY cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25, WY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 80× p/e (4.9× the 16× p/e peer median, and 2.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~23% near-term growth vs our ~-8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $20 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 23% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.06 → $0.11 (+84.4% / 30d). 9 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 120.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$233.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,978.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk remained moderate. Earnings quality is fragile. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows the company is on track with its growth goals. It reflects operational stability amid market challenges.
Confirms:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was $425 million or more.
Disproves:Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $400 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (e) On May 14, 2026, the Weyerhaeuser Company ("Weyerhaeuser" or the "Company") amended and restated the Weyerhaeuser Company 2023 Deferred Compensation Plan. Pursuant to the plan, designated employee participants, including the company’s executive officers, may defer between 10 and 50 percent of base salary and between 10 and 100 percent of cash in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WY Weyerhaeuser | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
WELL Welltower | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | expensive | low |
PLD Prologis | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | low |
EQIX Equinix | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AMT American Tower | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Targeting $1.5 billion of incremental Adjusted EBITDA by 2030.
The company expects full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA for the segment to be approximately $425 million.
Weyerhaeuser anticipates second quarter earnings before special items and Adjusted EBITDA will be comparable to the first quarter.
Why it matters: Better sector performance could help Weyerhaeuser grow and increase value.
Confirms:Sector performance shows signs of recovery or growth.
Disproves:Sector performance keeps getting worse or stays the same.
Why it matters: Updates on this plan will show management's commitment to growth and financial health.
Confirms:Management gives a clear update on the $1.5 billion goal.
Disproves:No updates or signs of progress towards the $1.5 billion goal.
Why it matters: Higher lumber prices can boost revenue and profit margins. This is critical for the Wood Products segment.
Confirms:Lumber prices increase by more than 10% from current levels.
Disproves:Lumber prices decrease by more than 5% from current levels.
Why it matters: Comparable earnings show steady performance and good cost management. This helps build investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 earnings reported at or above $156 million.
Disproves:Q2 earnings reported below $140 million.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in s…
Departure of Directors or Certa in Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (d) Weyerhaeuser Company (the "Company") is filing this Amendment to its Current Report on Form 8-K filed on November 18, 2025, which reported that the Company's board of directors had appointed Rick Beckwitt as a new member of the board effective November 14, 2025. At the time of his appointment to the board, Mr. Beckwitt had not been appointed to…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in s…