Reading CBRE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBRE free→CBRE Group (CBRE)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$135.51+1.01%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CBRE is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair), and the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Real Estate Services
- Market cap
- $40.05B
- Employees
- 155,000
- IPO date
- 2001-04-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $135.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$136.32consensus
Range $123.81 – $161.05
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$233.55consensus
Range $203.39 – $259.64
vs price: -42% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peerslow confidence
At $136 CBRE trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $136 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $175–$185. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.5x
peer 19.5x · own history 20.3x
Premium
1.1x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-1%
our forecast 22%
Our fair value
$136.32
range $123.81 – $159.32
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 22%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
86th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 0.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
20th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish12 analysts, 92% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.52 → $1.51 (-0.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$283.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,737.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth below 10%
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth could indicate weakening demand in the real estate sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth comes in below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-0412d agoSeeking Alpha
Focus on data center potential aligns with digital services goal.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CBRE and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like BEKE, JLL, and CSGP keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting CBRE and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CBRE beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +18% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If CBRE reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-23), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like BEKE, JLL, and CSGP start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping CBRE and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 4, 2026, CBRE Services, Inc. (“Services”), a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, completed its previously announced offering of $750,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 5.250% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Notes are guaranteed on a full and unconditional basis by the Company. The Notes are governed by an Indenture, dated as of March 14, 2013 (the “Base Indenture”), among Services, the Company, certain…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.