Reading SEG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SEG free→Reading SEG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SEG free→NYSEReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 95% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include the potential for a favorable shift in interest rates and the performance of sector bellwethers like CBRE, BEKE, and JLL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 SEG trades at 3× p/s — 2.1× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $12 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 108% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.31x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.16 → $-0.25 (-56.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$381.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,213.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could help Seaport's recovery.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows an increase back toward previous highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SEG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inco…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SEG Seaport Entertainment Group, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize and complete the sale of the mixed-use development project at 250 Water Street.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. SEG completed the sale of 250 Water Street for $143.0 million in 2026-Q1. This transaction was a recurring focus and has been successfully delivered, aligning with management's stated capital allocation priorities.
“SEG completed the sale of 250 Water Street for $143.0 million.”
“SEG entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement for 250 Water Street.”
“SEG entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement for 250 Water Street.”
Focus on addressing and mitigating the impact of earnings misses.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. SEG reported earnings misses in both 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1, with net income declining from -$36.9M to -$44.1M. The recurring focus on addressing these misses has shown limited progress, as financial performance continues to decline.
“SEG reported an earnings miss.”
“SEG reported an earnings miss.”
Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant. On April 1, 2026, the Audit Committee (the “Audit Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. (the “Company”) dismissed KPMG LLP (“KPMG”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, effective immediately, and approved the engagement of Grant Thornton LLP (“Grant Thornton”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm to audit the Company’s financial statements for the year endi…
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inco…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On February 6, 2026, 250 Seaport District, LLC (the “Seller”), a subsidiary of Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. (the “Company”), completed the sale (the “Sale”) of a mixed-use development project located at 250 Water Street (“250 Water Street”) to 250 Water Street Owner LLC (the “Buyer”) for a sale price of $143.0 million. The Buyer is an affiliate of Tavros Holdings LLC, a privately owned real estate investment management and development…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported, on August 15, 2025, 250 Seaport District, LLC (the “Seller”), a subsidiary of Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (as amended by that certain First Amendment to Purchase Agreement dated December 15, 2025, the “Agreement”) with 250 Water Street Owner LLC (the “Buyer”) for the sale of a mixed-use development project located at 250 Water Street (“250 Water Street”). The…