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Marcus & Millichap, Inc. (MMI)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$29.90+1.63%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect MMI's performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If MMI cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Real Estate Services
- Market cap
- $1.14B
- Employees
- 164,000
- IPO date
- 2013-09-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$31.26consensus
Range $30.58 – $31.94
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$19.12consensus
Range $19.12 – $19.12
vs price: +56% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $30 MMI trades at 2× p/s, in line with its 2× p/s peer median. Our $31 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.6x
peer 1.6x · own history 1.5x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast -14%
Our fair value
$30.95
range $30.43 – $31.48
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
24th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -155.81x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -166.7% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.12 → $-0.08 (-166.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme sunbelt-migration.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$110.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$311.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,406.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth below 10%
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand in the commercial real estate market.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-181mo agoYahoo! Finance
Threatens: Overcome near-term market challenges
Analyst questions indicate concerns about overcoming market challenges.
ChallengesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MMI and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CBRE, BEKE, and JLL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting MMI and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MMI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MMI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-02-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CBRE, BEKE, and JLL start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping MMI and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Marcus & Millichap, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished on this Form 8-K, including the attached exhibit, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as am…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.